The operating philosophy of the Red Sox since the 2021 MLB Draft basically can be described in six words: "Wait 'til Marcelo Mayer gets here."
The Red Sox couldn't sign Xander Bogaerts long-term for fear he'd block Mayer. They couldn't spend in any of the last three offseasons because why invest before Mayer triggers the homegrown renaissance? God bless these 2024 overachievers, but with all due respect to Jarren Duran, Tanner Houck, and Ceddanne Rafaela, the real fun starts when Mayer leads the next generation to Boston.
To that operating philosophy, may I offer a three-word rebuttal: Bobby Witt Jr.
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The Red Sox open a three-game series with the Royals and their franchise shortstop on Monday in the biggest matchup between Boston and Kansas City since Tom Brady vs. Patrick Mahomes. The Royals lead the Red Sox by 2.5 games in the race for the final wild card, and they wouldn't even be in the conversation without Witt.
The No. 2 overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft, Witt took his lumps over his first two seasons and now he's taking his vengeance. He's far and away the best all-around player in the American League, if not MLB, and the MVP race looks like a collision course between Witt and Yankees slugger Aaron Judge.
Witt is what a franchise shortstop looks like, with one 30-30 season already under his belt and a potential batting title on the horizon. Just six weeks after his 24th birthday, he's hitting a league-leading .344 with 20 homers, 25 steals, and a .980 OPS.
His skills are breathtaking. There are 10-minute YouTube videos devoted to his "God mode" defensive plays, and he's appointment television in clutch situations. Only a week ago, the Royals appeared headed for a certain loss to the White Sox before Witt's go-ahead grand slam in the eighth. They have that team-of-destiny feel, and their shortstop powers the engine.
What this has to do with Mayer is simple – he's almost assuredly not going to be Witt, and that's OK. We're talking about a generational talent. But it highlights the warped thinking that has left the Red Sox able to envision salvation solely via the farm system.
That's not just risky, it does talented players like Mayer a disservice.
Mayer shouldn't have to play savior. It should be enough that he's a really talented player, and maybe even an All-Star. But by refusing to invest in the big league roster until the prospects arrive, the Red Sox have created a dynamic where if Mayer's as good as, say, Duran, that will be considered a failure, which is crazy, because we've been conditioned to expect the next Witt.
That's almost certainly not going to happen.
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For one, Witt is more athletic. He stole 49 bases last year in the big leagues, whereas Mayer has stolen 46 bases over four years in the minors. Witt also possesses more raw power. In his only full minor league season, he smashed 33 homers in just 124 games. Mayer didn't hit his 33rd minor league homer until May.
Witt has also proven more durable, on pace for his third straight season of at least 150 games, whereas Mayer is on the injured list for a hip injury after a bad shoulder cut last season short.
None of this means Mayer won't eventually be the real deal. Respected analyst Keith Law of The Athletic just named Mayer his No. 2 overall prospect, and prior to this latest injury, Mayer had been catching fire. But even the best-case projections tend more towards a well-rounded star than an unstoppable force. Mayer is a plus defender at short with the potential to hit .300 and maybe grow into more power.
His floor of everyday big leaguer is really high; what's less clear is the height of his ceiling or the likelihood that he reaches it, the kind of sentence no one ever wrote about Witt.
And it's not like Witt dominated from Day 1. Two years into his career, he was only a .265 hitter. Though he finished seventh in last year's MVP voting, the real leap has come in Year 3. It took him about 1,000 at-bats to adjust to big-league pitching.
Will the Red Sox exhibit similar patience once Mayer gets the call?
None of this means Mayer won't be a very good big leaguer. But pay close attention for the next three nights when Witt steps into the box or dives for a ball in the hole. That's a franchise shortstop, and baseball might only be blessed with one or two of them at a time.