Mike Felger and Michael Holley are back with another Heat Check! They discuss whether or not they believe the Red Sox will make a serious offer to free agent Juan Soto after reports that he is meeting with the team this week.
Of all the arguments against the Red Sox signing Juan Soto, this one confounds me: "They wouldn't pay Mookie, but now we're supposed to believe they're gonna pay Soto?"
Umm, yes. That's exactly what you're supposed to believe.
As the Soto negotiations race to their conclusion with the Red Sox reportedly among the clubs that have offered him at least $600 million, their failure to sign Betts should be interpreted as a driving force, not a limiting factor.
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The franchise appears intent on exiting the wilderness after five seasons in self-imposed exile, and the line of demarcation between the title-driven Red Sox of Dave Dombrowski and the draft-and-develop hermits of every front office since is the 2020 trade that sent their homegrown MVP to the Dodgers.
Back then, the Red Sox believed they lacked the organizational depth to support a $300 million contract. Some of us even agreed with them. Trade Betts, replenish the farm, jumpstart a rebuild. You're back in contention by 2022 or '23, tops.
We all know how that turned out. The return for Betts was underwhelming. The rebuild took its sweet-ass time. The contention window got painted shut, and only now are the Red Sox belatedly breaking out the utility and putty knives to pry it open.
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They need Soto now even more than they needed Betts then. In 2020, they were only a year removed from winning the fourth World Series of John Henry's ownership. Fans hated the Betts trade and its motivations, but the organization had built significant goodwill. Assemble another contender with the savings, and all would be forgiven.
We all know how that turned out, too. Not only are their TV ratings are down today, but so is attendance, which should be impossible at America's most beloved ballpark.
Even more alarmingly, they've lost their hold on Boston sports fans. Whereas once the team drove the news cycle, now they're barely worth a mention in Big Jim Murray's headlines. They've never felt less essential.
Soto would immediately change everything. He's a superstar in his prime, he has already won one World Series and reached another, and he's prepared to be the face of a franchise. He's the team's ticket back to relevancy, proceed directly to Go and collect $200.
There must be some part of Henry that knows he blew the Betts deal. Fans revolted, and even though the Red Sox did an admirable job rebuilding the farm under Chaim Bloom, it came at considerable expense to their brand.
They've only belatedly realized that man cannot win on prospects alone. There's no question they boast some good ones -- three of the top 10 in baseball by some measures -- but fans want superstars, and Roman Anthony and Co. probably won't establish themselves overnight. Their journey becomes much more perilous if there's no veteran support system in place to guide them.
Soto would transform Boston into a destination again, making it that much easier to land the next guy. So that's why the failure to extend Betts shouldn't be viewed as incompatible with the idea of signing Soto. It's quite the opposite, actually: The Red Sox are finally ready to admit their mistake, and five years later, maybe they can finally make it right.
