Making sense of a flurry of Red Sox moves over the last 24 hours...
First, serious props to chief baseball officer Craig Breslow for correctly reading Nick Pivetta's market. When the Red Sox tendered the right-hander a qualifying offer two weeks ago, plenty of us (raises hand) questioned the wisdom of committing $21 million to a relatively average pitcher on the assumption that he would almost certainly accept said offer (raises hand again).
But Pivetta had other ideas. With front offices increasingly basing their decisions less on the finished dessert and more on the ingredients, so to speak, Pivetta clearly believes he'll have a market. His combination of high strikeout rate and low walk rate is enticing, even if he's a 4.00 ERA guy at his best. So he declined the offer and will enter free agency in search of a multi-year deal.
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Assuming Pivetta signs elsewhere, the Red Sox will receive a compensatory draft pick at the end of the second round, which would offset the loss of any picks that come with signing a top free agent, like Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, or others. ...
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The Red Sox added two players to their 40-man roster ahead of the Rule 5 draft: right-hander Hunter Dobbins, and outfielder Jhostynxon Garcia.
Dobbins was just named their Minor League Pitcher of the Year and is a rotation depth option. At age 25, coming off 25 effective starts between Double- and Triple-A, he was a strong candidate to be selected.
Garcia, who is nicknamed "The Password," soared from Low-A to Double-A while mashing 23 homers. Baseball America ranks him as Boston's No. 18 prospect.
Of more interest is whom the Red Sox didn't protect. Former Tigers All-Star and Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer signed a two-year minor-league contract last winter while rehabbing from elbow surgery. Depending on where he is in his rehab, he could be enticing to an organization as a no-risk flier. Then again, if the Red Sox know this and would've protected him if they felt he was close to reclaiming his past form. ...
And finally, a cautionary tale. To make room for Dobbins and Garcia, the Red Sox designated right-handers Isaiah Campbell and Bryan Mata for assignment. The former is the answer to a trivia question: Whom did Breslow acquire in his first trade? (Campbell arrived from the Mariners for infielder Luis Urias last November).
The latter is the cautionary tale. Mata once ranked as the organization's top pitching prospect, but injuries and ineffectiveness completely derailed his career.
Remember that the next time someone tries to tell you the Red Sox can't trade a prospect because he might be a piece of the future, or argues that there's a looming roster crunch and oh no, what are we going to do – more often than not, even highly-ranked prospects end up missing.