Felger & Mazz discuss the Red Sox weekend event, and their lack of any big moves this offseason, especially after Chairman Tom Werner claimed the team was going “full throttle”.
You could wake up tomorrow to $25,000 on your porch with instructions to "have some fun." You could unearth cobalt deposits in your back yard and sell them to Apple. You could discover unclaimed property AND an abandoned bank account after logging into FindMassMoney.com.
These are all best-case scenarios, and I suppose they're not impossible. But I wouldn't plan my life around them.
Unfortunately, this seems to be the approach the Red Sox are taking to the 2024 season and beyond.
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There is a world in which they compete for a playoff berth and American League East title before establishing themselves as baseball's next powerhouse homegrown team. You tell me how likely it is that:
- Lucas Giolito regains his All-Star form.
- Young starters Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford become reliable Nos. 2 or 3 starters.
- Newly buff right-hander Garrett Whitlock makes 30 starts.
- Shortstop Trevor Story stays healthy and gets his offensive groove back.
- First baseman Triston Casas levels up to All-Star slugger.
- Second baseman Vaughn Grissom hits .300 and plays sterling defense.
- Rafael Devers finally quits leading the league in errors.
- Masataka Yoshida delivers on the power we were promised, after hitting just 15 homers last year.
- Tyler O'Neill avoids injuries, plays every day, and rediscovers his All-Star form of 2021.
- Closer Kenley Jansen remains elite at age 36, assuming he isn't traded.
- Outfielder Wilyer Abreu continues producing at the level suggested by his first 75 at-bats.
- At least one out of prospects Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, and Kyle Teel not only arrives this season, but makes an impact that sets the Red Sox up for an Orioles-like renaissance.
We could go on, assuming best-case scenarios involving the consistently inconsistent Nick Pivetta, the mercurial Jarren Duran, and some new faces in the bullpen, but let's just stick to the above.
Could even a handful of those possibilities come to pass? Sure. I wouldn't bet against Story, for instance. The hulking Casas posted some of the best numbers in baseball during the second half, and at least one of their young pitchers will probably step up.
But all of them? Now we're living in a fantasy that still might end in last place.
After spending two days at Winter Weekend in Springfield and listening to ownership, management, players, and coaches discuss the upcoming season, it's clear they're banking on hope, because new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow hasn't done nearly enough to acquire talent within ownership's financial constraints.
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The Red Sox wanted Japanese right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but were outbid by the Dodgers and Mets. They've so far stayed out of the deep end of the free-agent pitching pool, making one tepid move for Giolito. CEO Sam Kennedy acknowledged the payroll will probably drop from last year's $225 million.
That leaves the team to put the best face it can on the players who remain, players who contributed to a third last-place finish in four years.
"One of the reasons we were excited about Craig is because he knows how to build a pitching pipeline and hiring (pitching coach) Andrew Bailey was important," said chairman Tom Werner. "And I think that last year, we were competitive for the first half of the year, and then our lack of pitching depth caught up with us, but we actually like a lot of the people that we're pitching and we hope they take a step forward."
Anything's possible, but it's a big ask. Bailey was bullish on the staff he inherited, issuing a flat "no" when asked if the team needs reinforcements. But it's hard to see how the Red Sox have improved their rotation by subtracting veterans Chris Sale and James Paxton and replacing them with Giolito, unless Bello, Crawford, and Whitlock take massive strides and Pivetta shows that his success as a long reliever can translate in a return to the rotation.
"Sure, I want to be viewed in the upper echelon of the league as a pitching staff," said Bailey, who was credited with transforming the Giants. "I would also say that they weren't too far off last year as well. So there's a lot of talent here already. You can set guys up in certain ways to succeed. It's just very individual based. But yeah, expecting the staff to take steps forward."
Hoping for the best isn't just about the pitching staff. The Red Sox lost two of last year's most productive hitters in Justin Turner and Adam Duvall, though the latter could still return in free agency. Even projecting a full season of Story at shortstop, their defense remains ugly around the rest of the infield, and possibly in the outfield, too, at least on the days that Yoshida plays left. In the bigger picture, there's no guarantee any of their top prospects will be All-Stars, let alone superstars.
And yet the Red Sox have little choice but to hope for the best all over the organization. Positive thinking can be a powerful tool in our daily lives, but it won't hit a fastball.
