August is here and baseball still matters. That's a win for the Red Sox and their fans, and we're not complaining. But danger lurks like a submerged dorsal fin, and how they navigate the next three weeks could determine whether we'll care about September, too.
It's possible they reversed their 4-8 stumble out of the All-Star break with Wednesday's desperately needed walk-off victory over the Mariners. In taking two of three from a prime playoff pursuer, the Red Sox regained some of the mojo that propelled them through a dominant June.
That's the good news. But the bad news is they keep accumulating reasons to be concerned about their trajectory, even after chief baseball officer Craig Breslow solidified the team around the margins with an active, albeit unexciting, trade deadline.
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Here are four potential trouble spots as the pennant race kicks into high gear.
1. Unproven aces
Replace Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford with average or worse starters, and the season goes up in smoke faster than the Cheech and Chong reference I was going to make before realizing no one under 45 would get it.
Houck's last five starts illustrate just how fine the line is between dominance and decline. Houck has already blown through his career-high in innings, and for the Red Sox to reach October, let alone win there, he's going to have to regain his All-Star form for two more months.
But after walking just 19 batters in his first 17 starts, Houck has issued 14 free passes in his last five. He broke through on the strength of his command, finally landing his sweeper in the strike zone and forcing hitters to face him on his terms. When that pitch runs harmlessly off the plate, he's much easier to attack, and the path to the postseason becomes that much murkier.
Crawford represents a less extreme example – he wasn't as good as Houck in the first half, and he hasn't been as bad as him this month – but after entering the All-Star break with consecutive seven-inning starts of shutout ball, Crawford has delivered two clunkers.
He'll likely surpass his innings high in the next week, meaning Andrew Bailey could be running two pitchers in the red. James Paxton provides depth, but he's no paragon of durability himself. One injury to the rotation, and the Red Sox will have few options.
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2. Sloppiness
There are two sides to the young roster. On the plus side, they play with energy and don't know what they don't know, which can be freeing. On the downside, the season is long and maintaining concentration and consistency over six grueling months can challenge even the most veteran groups.
We're seeing a disturbing return to the early-season errors of the mental and physical variety that had the Red Sox on the outside of the playoff picture for three months.
In Saturday's loss to the Yankees, shortstop Ceddanne Rafaela wandered off third base and got picked off. During Tuesday's sluggish 10-6 loss to the Mariners, the Red Sox committed three errors and allowed five unearned runs. On Wednesday, outfielder Tyler O'Neill ended a potential big inning by wandering into first baseman Justin Turner on an infield pop-up and being doubled off via an obstruction call.
Even as the defense has stabilized since the loss of shortstop Trevor Story, the Red Sox still lead the league in errors and unearned runs. That can't continue if they want to stay in the race.
3. Depth
On Tuesday, Rafaela took a pitch off the forearm and the season flashed before our eyes: What would the Red Sox do without him? Romy Gonzalez and David Hamilton represent significant defensive downgrades, not to mention the punch that Rafaela has brought offensively over the last month as he makes a case for Rookie of the Year votes.
Then on Wednesday, closer Kenley Jansen tweaked his lower back while holding off the Mariners. When Breslow added middle men Lucas Sims and Luis Garcia at the deadline, it was on the assumption that they'd be handing the ball to Jansen. If he goes down, there's simply no one to replace him.
The same argument could be made for All-Star Game MVP Jarren Duran, a sparkplug if ever there was one. How would the offense survive without him, and who'd play center in his absence?
Some teams are built to weather such absences – the 2013 Red Sox famously cycled through two closers before landing on Koji Uehara – but in 2024, what you see is what you get. The club's depth has already been stretched to the breaking point.
4. August
The Red Sox haven't had a good August since 2018, when they went 18-9. The 2019 club went 14-13, but only after losing eight straight at the trade deadline and 12 of 16 as the month began to fall 17 games out of first place.
Recent August swoons have often resulted from subpar returns at the trade deadline taking a mental toll on the clubhouse, but that's not a valid excuse this time around, not after Breslow added a starter (Paxton), right-handed bat (Danny Jansen), and the two aforementioned relievers.
Still, the Red Sox appear well on their way to another 13-15 month, like last year, or 12-16, like the two years prior. And even in an American League without dominant wild card competitors, a losing August can spell doom in September.