Do the Red Sox have a shot at a wild card spot? Mazz breaks down why he thinks they do
The Red Sox used to dominate Fenway Park with one of the greatest home-field advantages in any sport, but not anymore.
The 2018 club won 57 games at home. The 2013 edition was Boston Strong to the tune of 53 wins. The 2007 (51) and 2004 (55) teams also topped 50 wins. What all of them have in common is that they won World Series titles.
But the home cooking hasn't been particularly tasty this season. If you looked only at the road record of 38-27, you might assume the Red Sox were fighting for first place. Thanks to a mystifyingly miserable 29-34 mark at home, though, they're on the outside of the wild card race.
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If "miserable" sounds like a strong adjective, consider this: Of the teams with the 19 best records in baseball, the Red Sox are the only ones with a losing record at home. So what gives?
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It's not like it's a new development. Since winning it all in 2018, the Red Sox have posted only two winning records in unfriendly Fenway. Manager Alex Cora was concerned enough about the struggles to address them this April before the home opener.
"We've been horrible at home since 2019, to be honest with you," he told MassLive. "I think we were good in '21. But in '19 we were bad. And the last two years we've been bad. For us to accomplish our first goal, which is to make it to the playoffs, we've got to play better."
At least last year we could point to lackluster crowds filled with visiting fans. The Red Sox have won back the paying customers with their gritty play this year, but it's not translating to actual wins.
It doesn't help that the club is just 6-15 in the opening game of a series at Fenway. It's hard to post a winning record in your own ballpark when you start every series down 0-1.
It also doesn't help that they're not built offensively to exploit their homefield advantage. While their overly left-handed lineup has done major damage on the road, it has been less explosive at home.
The Red Sox have socked 50 percent more home runs away from Fenway (96) than in the old ballpark (65). Oddly enough, the one right-handed masher in their lineup, Tyler O'Neill, has posted far better numbers on the road (.296-13-19-.974) than home (.225-9-27-.768). Also, their next-highest road OPS belongs to the right-handed Rob Refsnyder.
On the pitching side, the Red Sox are allowing about half a run a game more at home, with pronounced swings of about a run each in ERA from Nick Pivetta and Brayan Bello.
The time to reverse their fortunes is now, because the third and final wild card remains in striking distance. And should they claim it, they'd open the playoffs right where they want to be – on the road.
