As the Yoshinobu Yamamoto sweepstakes enter the home stretch, the Red Sox remain in the mix, which represents a welcome return to normalcy.
They may not win the bidding, but it won't be because they hoped to land him at their price instead of his. While I can't confirm that they've offered over $300 million, as has been reported elsewhere, that number fits with what I'm hearing about the team's interest.
For one, per multiple big-league sources, the Red Sox believe Yamamoto is the real deal and a true No. 1 starter. Perhaps that sounds obvious, but with the quality of play in Japan's top league roughly equivalent to Triple-A, it's never entirely clear how a player's game will translate.
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In this case, the Red Sox believe in Yamamoto's arsenal, composure, and competitiveness. The analytical breakdowns of his stuff -- a mid-90s fastball, devastating splitter, and big, biting curveball -- dovetail with the scouting reports that suggest an elite, top-of-the-rotation pitcher. The fact that he's available at age 25 for nothing more than a posting fee – albeit a considerable one that could top $50 million – makes him the proverbial unicorn.
The problem is that Craig Breslow isn't bidding against himself. The Yankees and Mets reportedly met with Yamamoto for the second time in New York over the weekend, and each is highly motivated to land the potential ace, who reportedly embraces the idea of pitching in the spotlight of a major market.
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Having already acquired superstar outfielder Juan Soto, the Yankees are determined to win back their fans after a lackluster fourth-place finish. Mets owner Steve Cohen, meanwhile, will spend whatever it takes to build a great team, but after last year's disappointing finish, he is pivoting to a more sustainable model. Nothing anchors one of those like a No. 1 starter who hasn't even entered his prime.
There's no telling how high the bidding might go, especially with the Dodgers lurking, the Giants reportedly in the $300 million club, and the Phillies always a threat. Whoever signs Yamamoto is going to have to get uncomfortable, which is not a feeling the Red Sox have embraced over the last five years.
Then again, if they've stepped up as has been reported, it's already an improvement over last year, when franchise stalwart Xander Bogaerts joined the Padres on an 11-year, $280 million contract that came after the Red Sox opened the bidding with a pathetically low $90 million offer before finally making their last, best push in the $165 million range.
They never had a chance, despite declaring Bogaerts their No. 1 priority and then not remotely treating him like it. At least they're making a legitimate run at Yamamoto.
The question, if they lose out on him, will be what comes next, and the name to keep an eye on is Rangers lefty Jordan Montgomery. Because the 30-year-old was traded during the season, the team that signs him will not have to surrender a draft pick.
Montgomery already knows the AL East from his six years in New York, and he keyed the Rangers' run to their first championship with a solid postseason, particularly while picking up a pair of wins in the American League Championship Series vs. Astros. He may not be a No. 1 starter, but he'd stabilize and improve a Red Sox rotation that relied too much on openers and depth arms last season.
If Yamamoto chooses to go elsewhere, the Red Sox have contingency plans in place and will be ready to pivot. The risk is that every day he remains unsigned represents another chance for a starter to come off the market. As it is, effective pitchers like Aaron Nola, Eduardo Rodriguez, Sonny Gray, and Seth Lugo, to name four, have already found deals elsewhere.
Yamamoto must make a decision by Jan. 4, and at least the Red Sox appear to be in play. After four years avoiding the top of the market, that counts for something.