Hope may be flickering, but it's not entirely extinguished.
After failing to sweep the all-time awful White Sox this weekend, the Red Sox find themselves four games out of the final wild card with 19 to play. The more concerning number is two, which is how many teams have leapfrogged them in the standings. Before the Red Sox can catch the Twins for the final playoff spot, they'll need to pass the Mariners and Tigers, too. And that's assuming they can keep the indefatigable Rays in their rearview. Boston's lead over Tampa is down to just one game.
This is not where they thought they'd be a month ago, when they had the Royals in their sights with a seemingly favorable stretch of schedule looming. But a 5-11 skid has left them grasping for a handhold before the season slips away, and it just so happens that the tiniest outcropping exists.
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If the Red Sox have a rallying cry, it should be, "Just make it to Sept. 20." That's when the Twins visit for three games. The Red Sox need to remain within striking distance so those games matter.
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It won't be easy, not with the Orioles, Yankees, and Rays looming on the schedule. If the Red Sox keep playing like they have over the last two weeks, the Minnesota series won't mean anything. But if they can find a way to tap the resilience that was their hallmark for the two months leading into the All-Star break, they'll give themselves a chance.
If you haven't noticed, the Twins are a mess. Injuries have currently robbed them of superstar shortstop Carlos Correa, two starters, and their entire starting outfield. They've lost 13 of 19 while trying to piece it together, and it's worth noting they're no strangers to late-season collapses; tied for first in early September of 2022, they ended up finishing 14 games behind the Guardians.
They're similarly vulnerable now. Correa made his first All-Star team since signing a $200 million extension and looked like his old Astros self before hitting the injured list with plantar fasciitis in early July. He hasn't played since.
Right-hander Joe Ryan, a potential ace coming into his own, suffered a shoulder strain in August and was recently moved to the 60-day IL, meaning he can't return until the postseason. Fellow right-hander Chris Paddack is in a similar position thanks to a forearm strain.
Then there's the outfield. Left fielder Manuel Margot was placed on the IL with a groin strain last week. Right fielder Max Kepler joined him a couple of days later with patellar tendinitis. And worst of all, five-tool center fielder Byron Buxton suffered a setback in his own rehab from a hip injury and isn't ready to return. He last played on Aug. 12.
The Twins have restocked from within and now feature three rookies in the rotation, as well as a couple of 4-A players in the lineup. They made only one addition at the trade deadline, and they just DFA'd him, ditching reliever Trevor Richards after he threw seven wild pitches and walked 11 in 13 innings.
As bad as the Red Sox have played, they're at least regaining reinforcements, led by veteran shortstop Trevor Story. Even with Rafael Devers playing hurt and clearly diminished, Boston's injuries are nowhere near as severe as Minnesota's.
That means there's a chance, provided the Red Sox can hang on against two of the best teams in the American League over the next 10 days. Just get to Sept. 20, and then see what happens.