There's still about two months remaining in the 2024 MLB regular season, so even if the Boston Red Sox falter a bit in the standings, they'll have time to regain some of that ground.
But make no mistake: The upcoming three weeks for the Red Sox is a crucial period for their playoff chances.
This difficult stretch in the schedule begins Monday night with a pivotal three-game series versus the Royals in Kansas City. The Royals lead the Red Sox by 2.5 games in the race for the third and final wild card playoff spot in the American League.
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After the Royals series, the Red Sox return to Fenway Park for three games against the Houston Astros. The Astros are just 2.5 games behind the Red Sox in the wild card chase and only a game behind the Seattle Mariners in the American League West race.
After three games with the Texas Rangers, the Red Sox go back on the road for four games against the American League East-leading Baltimore Orioles and three more at the Astros.
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In total, that's three games versus the Royals, four against the Orioles and six versus the Astros -- all very good teams with something significant to play for.
This upcoming stretch is one reason why the Red Sox have the 10th-toughest remaining schedule in the majors, per Tankathon. Boston's remaining opponents have a combined .508 win percentage.
August has been a tough month for the Red Sox in recent years. Reversing this trend will be crucial to their hopes of advancing to the postseason.
Here's a look at where the Red Sox sit in the wild card standings, plus their odds of reaching the playoffs as calculated by Fangraphs, entering Monday's action:
What's the key to the Red Sox not only surviving this stretch but actually making up ground on the teams ahead of them in the standings?
Pitching.
The Red Sox rank second-worst in the AL in ERA, hits allowed and batting average against since the All-Star break last month. They also rank 11th among AL teams in strikeouts and have allowed the fifth-most walks during that span.
The Red Sox offense should continue to produce. The lineup is very deep and has few weaknesses. Pitching is likely what will make or break this team's chances of reaching the playoffs for the first time since 2021. And Red Sox pitchers will face plenty of quality hitters over the next three weeks.