Dan Shaughnessy joins Arbella Early Edition to share his thoughts on reports that the Red Sox still don’t have a plan ahead of the trade deadline
The Boston Red Sox might not look like a World Series contender right now. But neither did the Arizona Diamondbacks at this juncture of the 2023 MLB season.
The D-Backs were 54-47, tied for second place in the National League West, on July 24 of last season. They decided not to sell at the trade deadline and instead made moves to improve the team. Arizona's most notable additions were closer Paul Sewald, outfielder/designated hitter Tommy Pham, and setup men Ryan Thompson and Andrew Saalfrank. None of these players was seen as a "major splash," but their arrivals addressed key weaknesses on the roster.
The Diamondbacks ultimately finished as the No. 3 wild card team in the NL and advanced all the way to the World Series, where they lost to the Texas Rangers in five games. Arizona and Texas were both wild card teams. It was the third time that both World Series participants were not division winners.
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It also was another example of why just getting to the postseason is important. Once you're in, anything can happen. It sounds cliche, and it is. But with the 2024 trade deadline just a week away, the Red Sox absolutely should consider the success of recent wild card teams when determining whether to make meaningful additions to their roster.
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The Red Sox have an almost identical record to the 2023 D-Backs on this date. They enter Wednesday with a 54-46 record and sit one game behind the Kansas City Royals for the third and final AL wild card berth. They're also one game behind the Minnesota Twins for the second wild card spot.
History suggests that finishing as a wild card team can lead to some pretty exciting playoff runs.
Consider these stats/trends:
- Since 2000, seven teams have won the World Series as a wild card team, including the 2004 Red Sox.
- Since 2000, AL wild card teams have won 20 postseason series (ALDS, ALCS and World Series).
- Since 2000, 12 AL wild card teams have reached at least the ALCS.
- At least one wild card team reached the World Series from 2002 through 2007.
- Three World Series (2002, 2014 and 2023) featured two wild card teams.
The Red Sox have been a wild card playoff team eight times, tied with the New York Yankees for the most since the original wild card format was introduced in 1995. Boston has won nine postseason series as a wild card team, with its most recent victory coming in the 2021 ALDS versus the Tampa Bay Rays.
Half of all AL playoffs (12 of 24) this century had a wild card team reach the ALCS (or further). That's a crazy trend.
What's behind the postseason success of these wild card teams?
Playing meaningful games in August and September certainly helps. These teams often were playing in pressure-packed scenarios for two months, therefore making the transition from the regular season to the playoffs a little easier.
Some of these teams also were just really good but found themselves in a division with another team that won more games. For example, the 2004 Red Sox had the third-best record (98-64) in baseball, but they were a wild card team because the Yankees had the second-best record (101-61). That Red Sox team wasn't the typical wild card squad.
Adding a starting pitcher, a reliever and/or a right-handed bat would be impactful upgrades to this year's Red Sox team. This year's group plays with speed, and it can also produce offensively, ranking top five among AL teams in hits, doubles, triples, home runs, steals, batting average and on-base percentage. More depth, especially on the pitching staff, would be quite valuable. Pitching often makes or breaks a team's title chances in October.
The Red Sox haven't made the playoffs since 2021. It's actually their only postseason appearance since winning the 2018 World Series. Ownership should send a message to the players and fans that they believe in this team, and the most effective way to convey that sentiment would be making an addition or two ahead of next week's trade deadline.
This team has exceeded expectations and deserves a chance to make a wild card push late in September.
And, as history shows, just getting into the tournament can yield fantastic results. The Red Sox, given their success as a wild card team, should understand that better than most other franchises.
