We interrupt the Fenway Park Good Feelings Tour with this bucket of cold water: The MLB trade deadline looks like a serious seller's market, and Craig Breslow wouldn't be doing his job if he didn't try to exploit it.
The calls to add will come from every corner over the next five weeks, especially if the Red Sox continue rampaging through what was supposed to be the toughest part of their schedule. With Tanner Houck, Jarren Duran, and Connor Wong blossoming into potential All-Stars and Alex Cora waving his conductor's baton, the Red Sox have earned the right to force management's hand and finally add a player who can help immediately, which they haven't done since acquiring Kyle Schwarber at the 2021 trade deadline.
But ... trade markets don't develop in a vacuum. There are other factors to consider, like: What if virtually the entire National League remains in the wild card race just months after the 84-win Diamondbacks roared to the World Series? What if sub-.500 teams like the Rangers and Astros make their inevitable runs back to contention? What if you'll never do better to maximize the returns on pending free agents like closer Kenley Jansen, outfielder Tyler O'Neill, and right-hander Nick Pivetta than right now?
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If you're Breslow, now is the time to make unpopular moves, since the Red Sox generally fire their baseball bosses in Year 4, not Year 1. Just imagine how much better-situated the team might be if predecessor Chaim Bloom had pulled the trigger on veterans like Nathan Eovaldi, J.D. Martinez, and even Xander Bogaerts before letting all three basically walk for nothing.
Breslow arrived promising to act aggressively, and I've always thought that meant dealing veterans off the active roster while they still possessed value. After all, it was last year's wishy-washy trade deadline that ultimately sealed Bloom's fate.
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Step back from two galvanizing weeks of baseball, and the Red Sox remain a flawed team. They're overly left-handed, they're still not great defensively on the infield, and their top two starters, Houck and Kutter Crawford, are already approaching innings highs. That's a lot of potential needs to address in a market where acquiring talent won't come cheap.
"Who cares?" you say, and there's merit to that argument. At some point the Red Sox need to show their clubhouse and fans they care about the current team, and frankly, that's the route I'd take next month. But it's only fair to acknowledge the opportunity if they decide to maximize their assets.
All but two National League teams remain within four games of a wild card berth, which creates the opening for multiplying buyers. If you're an executive feeling the heat to win now, like John Mozeliak in St. Louis after a shocking last-place finish in 2023, you're going to be less inclined to take the long view. The only surefire sellers in the National League are the Marlins, with rookie president Peter Bendix beginning a franchise overhaul, and the 27-win Rockies. Everyone else should at least explore upgrades.
The picture is a little clearer in the American League, where the White Sox, Tigers, Angels, and A's have little chance of contending, and the Jays and Rays may reach similar conclusions. Of the remaining contenders, no team in the AL Central (Guardians, Royals, Twins) is blessed with the resources to make a big splash, and it remains unclear what the Orioles will be willing to add. But the Yankees, Mariners, Rangers, and Astros have traditionally acted aggressively.
You never know which move will unlock a long postseason run, as the Red Sox learned with Schwarber. At this time last year, for instance, the Phillies only had 30 percent playoff odds and the D'Backs were no one's idea of a contender. But Philly added right-hander Michael Lorenzen, who promptly threw a no-hitter and won four of his six starts, while Arizona added the itinerant Tommy Pham, as well as Mariners closer Paul Sewald. Even if Philly's resurgence was more about free agent Trea Turner finally catching fire, the Phillies never have to worry about management's priorities with Dave Dombrowski in charge.
The Red Sox haven't been run like a big-market team since Dombrowski's firing, and it's unlikely that's suddenly going to change under Breslow. But here's the unpopular truth: It might be in the team's best long-term interests to ignore this recent run back into playoff position and treat the deadline as an opportunity to sell.