It's officially time to feel uneasy about this Red Sox offseason.
It's halfway through December, and not only has new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow failed to address the team's most glaring weakness -- starting pitching -- but the atmospheric conditions swirling ominously look capable of producing a Category 5 disaster.
Consider this scenario: The Red Sox wait out primary target Yoshinobu Yamamoto, only to have him sign with the Yankees. In rapid-fire succession, the Dodgers strike a deal with Blake Snell, the Mets pivot to Jordan Montgomery, and the Blue Jays overpay Shota Imanaga, with the Phillies and Giants still lurking to snare whatever's left.
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Suddenly, the Red Sox are scrambling to field any rotation, let alone a good one, and we're back to last year's mess of James Paxton, Corey Kluber, and a bunch of Triple-A depth. They'll have no choice but to force-feed us the fantasy that Chris Sale is actually the ace, and the season will be over before it starts.
We're not there yet, but the hour is growing late. Maybe the Red Sox launch into the stratosphere to land Yamamoto, at which point you can print this column and throw it in the trash, but that feels increasingly unlikely, given not just the $300 million stakes, but the players.
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In fact, if there's an overlooked aspect to this winter, it's the nightmarish consortium of rivals that has formed atop the pitching market. I can't imagine a group of teams I'd be less enthused to bid against than the Mets of stop-at-nothing Steve Cohen, the determined Yankees who have already acquired Juan Soto, the Dodgers with money to burn after Ohtani basically deferred his entire salary, the Phillies of Dealer Dave Dombrowski, or the motivated Giants and Blue Jays, who are sick of finishing second for big-ticket items.
The Red Sox, committed to growing from within and spending prudently, are hardly equipped to outbid that group, which makes their pursuit of Yamamoto potentially the gravest miscalculation of the winter. Cohen has already flown to Japan to meet the pitcher's family. Yankees GM Brian Cashman sat in the front row for one of his final starts. The Dodgers somehow remain below the luxury tax despite their assemblage of MVPs (although a reported deal for Rays ace Tyler Glasnow could change that). The Phillies just became dark horse entrants to the sweepstakes.
The Red Sox don't just need to match Yamamoto's best offer, they need to blow it away, since everyone else on that list offers a more realistic path to postseason success, at least in the short term. Are they really going to top an obsessed Cohen? Can they introduce Yamamoto to a contingent of ambassadors that includes three former MVPs as future teammates like the Dodgers? If Yamamoto loves the big stage as much as insiders believe, not even Fenway Park can top Yankee Stadium.
For a 25-year-old ace, if the market is $300 million, the Red Sox should offer 350. Their problem since blowing up the 2018 World Series champions has been a failure to recognize that extending for the best players will never come on your scale, but theirs. The Yankees probably could've had Gerrit Cole for less than $324 million, for example, but they're hardly regretting the extra expense now after his first Cy Young Award.
Breslow and his staff are keeping in touch with the other top starters on the market, including left-hander Jordan Montgomery, but while they wait for Yamamoto, the field continues to thin. Old friend Eduardo Rodriguez signed with the Diamondbacks, All-Star right-hander Sonny Gray joined the Cardinals, the Phillies retained Aaron Nola, and the Royals of all teams won the bidding for right-hander Seth Lugo. Even the trade market is starting to move, as the Glasnow deal suggests.
Any two of those guys may not have moved the needle, but let's not ignore that the Red Sox weren't actually that far off last year. They hit the trade deadline just a game out of the wild card, desperately in need of another starter. One pitcher might've been enough to reach October, and the Diamondbacks showed the world what can happen when you get there.
This time around, the Red Sox know better. Their deficiencies are clear, and they shouldn't wait until July to address them. They need starters, their deepest-pocketed rivals need starters, and I'm beginning to worry about a looming disaster.