Roki Sasaki has little reason to consider Red Sox, even if they spend

This is what happens when you neglect your big league roster for five years: a potential superstar like Roki Sasaki hits the market, and you're not a viable destination.

Normally, we'd be diving into scouting reports on the ace Japanese right-hander, who will be coming to America at the age of 23, and for no money, since he'll arrive via the posting system.

Whereas countryman Yoshinobu Yamamoto broke the bank last winter to the tune of a $325 million contract with the Dodgers as a true free agent, Sasaki's earnings will be capped like Shohei Ohtani's were when he joined the Angels in 2017 for not even $2.5 million in international bonus money.

That makes Sasaki a unicorn for a team like the Red Sox, who desperately need a No. 1 starter and would love a player so young, he wasn't even born when George W. Bush threw out the first pitch before Game 3 of the 2001 World Series.

But the Red Sox have spent the last five years in a defensive crouch, awaiting the arrival of prospects and declining to invest in the major league product. They have a 353-355 record and one playoff berth to show for their caution, and now it's going to effectively eliminate them from the Sasaki sweepstakes before they begin.

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It will have nothing to do with money. Since Sasaki is under 25 and hasn't yet pitched for six seasons in Japan, he is considered an international free agent and must be signed out of a team's international bonus pool. Depending on his posting date, he'll either be paid out of this year's pool or next year's pool. The Red Sox have the fifth-highest amount remaining in the former ($990,000) and rank middle of the pack in the latter ($6.26 million). (Check out MLB.com's explainer for the full details of the posting process.)

Unfortunately for them, Sasaki's decision will come down to fit and which team gives him the best chance to win. And that means he'll consider the usual suspects: the Dodgers, Padres, Yankees, and Mets. L.A., in fact, somehow has the highest remaining bonus pool for 2024 ($2.5 million), so if Sasaki wants to sign now, the defending champs could offer him not just a chance to play with Ohtani and Yamamoto, but the most money, too.

The Red Sox have scouted Sasaki – chief baseball officer Craig Breslow watched him in person last season, per MassLive – and in the old days, they would've been a potential destination. While conventional wisdom is that Japanese players prefer to stay on the West Coast, there are exceptions, like slugger Hideki Matsui, who spent seven years with the Yankees, winning a World Series in 2009. Or closer to home, a fellow by the name of Daisuke Matsuzaka.

When they made their pitch to Ohtani in 2017, the Red Sox did so as legitimate contenders coming off a division title with a roster that included burgeoning young superstar Mookie Betts. A week before Ohtani made his choice that December, the Red Sox spent $217 million on former Cy Young Award winner David Price. No one could question the organization's commitment to winning.

But Sasaki has little reason to choose them now, unless he's been closely following the prospect rankings. The Red Sox have made the playoffs just once since their 2018 title, and 2024's 81-81 finish represented their best showing since an outlier playoff berth in 2021. They've finished last three times in the last five years.

With a fastball that has reached 102 mph and a 2.02 ERA over four seasons with Chiba Lotte, Sasaki has the stuff to front a rotation.

He wowed during the 2023 World Baseball Classic, when he helped lead Japan to a title by striking out 11 in 7.2 innings. His fastball is high-octane, and his slider is electric. If there's any reason for caution, it's that he's never thrown 130 innings in a season, and at 6-foot-2, 187 pounds, is on the slender side.

Those are issues for teams with a realistic chance of signing him to consider, however. The Red Sox aren't one of them. They've declared an intention to spend this winter, and perhaps in coming offseasons, they'll be players for international superstars again. But for now, they must live with the consequences of their recent decisions.