The Boston Celtics have rarely been at full strength this season.
Boston’s preferred starting five of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Kristaps Porzingis, and Jrue Holiday have played a little more than 300 minutes together over 20 games. Boston’s top six — adding in Al Horford — has been available just 16 times. The Celtics have had their top 10 — adding in Payton Pritchard, Sam Hauser, Luke Kornet, and Neemias Queta — available just 12 times over 68 games.
And it doesn’t appear those numbers will grow by very much before the playoffs arrive.
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Brown is set to miss Tuesday’s visit from the Brooklyn Nets due to a knee impingement. Boston hasn’t had its preferred starting five available since February 23, a rare day when the team had its entire top nine available and leaned on that playoff core in a triumph over the New York Knicks.
Thirteen games remain after Tuesday’s tilt with Brooklyn. But that includes two back-to-backs. Boston will almost certainly rest players on both ends of those sets, eliminating four more possibilities to see the full playoff rotation. What’s more, one of those back-to-back features Orlando and New York, two teams that are two of the more likely playoff opponents, so there might be a value in playing it close to the vest then, anyhow.
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Boston closes out the regular season with a home-and-home against Charlotte on April 11 and 13. Last year, in a similar setup, Boston rested much of its veterans over its final two home games, even with nearly a full week off before the playoffs due to the play-in tournament.
If Boston elects to do the same this season, that would essentially leave seven games where the Celtics could potentially trot out their top nine bodies to the finish line of the regular season:
- March 21 at Utah
- March 26 at Phoenix
- March 29 at San Antonio
- March 31 at Memphis
- April 2 vs. Miami
- April 4 vs. Phoenix
- April 6 vs. Washington
There is only one surefire playoff team in that mix: Memphis (fifth in the West). And the Grizzlies will have to balance playing the front end of their own back-to-back with a visit from Golden State looming the following night.
All of which is our longwinded way of noting that Boston isn’t going to get many more playoff-like reps for its core group. But does it matter?
It feels mildly important for the starting five to get some additional run. Boston’s preferred five has logged just 307 minutes together and has a minus-1.6 net rating in that span. The numbers have improved from a rocky start after Porzingis first returned from offseason ankle surgery, but are not nearly as glitzy as the plus-17.3 net rating that Boston posted in 265 minutes with Horford as the starting center while Porzingis was rehabbing. What’s more, a lineup with Kornet starting in place of both Horford and Porzingis has a plus-11.5 net rating in 68 minutes.
A year ago, Boston’s preferred starting five had a plus-11 net rating in 623 minutes together over 37 games. Still, Porzingis appeared in only seven postseason games, so that group logged only 82 total playoff minutes. The Horford lineup ended up playing 305 minutes over 19 games.
Internally, there is great confidence the Celtics can find their full-health mojo on short notice, even if there’s not a lot of reps to the finish line of the season. The continuity from last season should aid this team, while one of Boston’s greatest strengths has been its ability to thrive regardless of availability.
Matchups could dictate how Boston ultimately deploys personnel in the postseason. There are teams that will force the team to lean heavier into the double-big lineups that have produced some of Boston’ best basketball this season.
Still, it’s undeniable that getting the starting five at least a couple more opportunities to find last year’s swagger could be valuable. Boston is virtually locked into the No. 2 seed — a 99.9 percent chance per NBA Reference daily simulations (and that 0.1 percent chance is catching the Cavaliers for the No. 1 seed, not slipping to No. 3).
There are a few side quests that Boston could entertain at the finish line of the season. Jaylen Brown needs nine more games to be eligible for All-NBA, and a loud finish could aid his chances to muscle back into one of those 15 spots. Payton Pritchard is steamrolling towards the Sixth Man of the Year honor and will get plenty of run to make sure Malik Beasley and Co. don’t catch him at the finish line.
Can Torrey Craig use late-season reps to earn Joe Mazzulla’s confidence? It’s easy to suggest Boston will lean solely on its top nine in the postseason but, last year, Xavier Tillman made a couple of important cameos during Boston’s NBA Finals run and there will be opportunities for deeper-depth guys to put their fingerprints on the Celtics' quest to repeat.
Holiday is averaging 12.4 points while shooting 50 percent from the floor and 35.7 percent beyond the 3-point arc since returning from his mallet finger injury in the pinky on his right shooting hand. More regular-season reps with that ailment should help, even if initial returns have been encouraging.
Recent draftees like Baylor Scheierman and Jordan Walsh, along with all of Boston’s younger players, need to embrace whatever minutes are available at the finish line of the season with hopes of making an impression.
There’s not a lot to accomplish over the next month, and the schedule might conspire against the few things that Boston yearns to do. An occasional glimpse at the playoff rotation would be helpful but, ultimately, that might just have to wait until mid-April and beyond.