The Boston Celtics needed a Game 7 to eliminate the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals and reach the 2022 NBA Finals. This year, both oddsmakers and the analytics/predictive models view Boston as massive favorites to repeat as conference champions.
ESPN Analytics gives the Celtics an astounding 97 percent chance to beat the Heat.
FiveThirtyEight's predictive model gives the Celtics a 78 percent chance to reach the NBA Finals.
The C's are huge betting favorites to win the conference finals, too. Here are the latest odds, via DraftKings Sportsbook:
- Series moneyline: Celtics -525, Heat +400
Why are the Celtics such heavy favorites?
Well, they are the best team left in the playoffs based on regular season record, which means they will have homecourt advantage in every series remaining. They did not have homecourt in the conference finals or NBA Finals last season.
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The Celtics also have a better roster than they did last season. The addition of Malcolm Brogdon has significantly improved Boston's bench. Starting center Robert Williams is healthy and has played in every game during this playoff run after missing several postseason matchups last year. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have improved over the course of the 2022-23 campaign and recently were selected to the All-NBA first and second team, respectively.
The Heat are without star guard Tyler Herro due to injury and lost veteran forward P.J. Tucker in free agency last summer. They barely got into the playoffs as the No. 8 seed before upsetting the No. 1 seed Milwaukee Bucks in the first round and No. 5 seed New York Knicks in the second round.
Jayson Tatum's epic Game 7 performance started with a mindset shift
Even though the Celtics are a better team on paper and deserve to be the favorites in this series, the Heat must be taken seriously.
Jimmy Butler is one of the best playoff performers in the sport and he's already put together some incredible performances over the first two rounds of the 2023 playoffs. He also played fantastic in the Celtics-Heat conference finals last season, including a 47-point performance in Game 6 at TD Garden when Miami was facing elimination. He scored 35 points in Game 7 but the Heat lost.
Let's not forget the Heat have the league's best coach in Erik Spoelstra, who is great at exploiting the opponents' weaknesses and making effective in-game adjustments. The Heat also are not strangers to strong starts in playoff series, evidenced by the fact that they've won five consecutive Game 1s. The Celtics have won two of their last five Game 1s.
It would be an upset if the Celtics don't beat the Heat. That said, Miami isn't likely to go down easy. This Heat team plays hard and has loads of experience. They won't be afraid of the moment and won't be intimidated by the Boston crowd in this series.