Brian Scalabrine breaks down why this year’s Celtics team has the ability to be even better than last year’s, and potentially the best one in recent decades, if they can stay healthy.
The Celtics hope to become the first repeat champions since the 2017-18 Warriors, and they've got no shortage of recent examples to examine in the hopes of avoiding what can go wrong.
Only one other time in NBA history (from 1975-80) has there been six straight unique champions, and the C's just extended that run last season, following the Nuggets, Warriors, Lakers, Bucks, and Raptors.
So what can we learn from the five teams that failed to repeat? Quite a bit, actually.
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The Raptors are easy. They were a Kawhi Leonard one-off, and when he left for the Clippers in the summer of 2019, he took Toronto's title-defending hopes with him. The Raptors gambled brilliantly on one year of Leonard, and it paid off with the ultimate prize. It bears little relevance to the Celtics, whose stars are well-established and not going anywhere.
Then there are the Warriors and Lakers. You can lump them together, because they suffered the same issue: age.
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LeBron James turns 40 this December, and even though he has maintained an MVP level of play far longer than anyone in history – he's the NBA's Tom Brady at this point – there comes a time where carrying a franchise is too much, especially considering all the years he spent as Cleveland's 1, 1-A, and 1-B. Since winning his fourth and presumably final title, James has seen his Lakers miss the playoffs once, get bounced in the first round twice, and make one fluky run to the conference finals. He has missed 90 games over the last four seasons and the Lakers have lacked the supporting cast to bolster him.
The Warriors aged as a team, with the core of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green reaching their mid-30s together. It felt that way at the time, and it's obvious now – beating the Celtics in '22 represented their last stand.
So how about the Bucks and Nuggets? Here's where things get interesting.
The Nuggets had an easy postseason path two years ago, beating three play-in teams and the overrated Suns. That's a cautionary tale, I suppose, considering the starless path the Celtics stampeded to the Finals.
But the Nuggets also lost their key glue guy in Bruce Brown, who's a poor man's Jrue Holiday or Derrick White. Brown does all the little things so the stars don't have to, and Denver missed his versatility last season. The Celtics, by contrast, haven't lost anyone.
Watch the Nuggets play last year, and they obviously depended too much on the superstar duo of Nikola Jokić and Jamal Murray. Those two needed to be great every night, and it wore them down. Denver went 44-15 with Murray in the lineup and 12-10 without him.
The Celtics, by contrast, are much deeper, which is why they could go 21-4 without Kristaps Porzingis, 7-1 without Jayson Tatum, etc... They can, and frequently have, won without both of their superstars dominating. Last year's Denver team is cooked in that scenario, because Aaron Gordon is a rim-runner/garbage man (whom I'd take in a second, by the way), and Kentavius Caldwell-Pope doesn't scare anyone.
Then there are the Bucks. They've always lived on the edge, because they're built around a flawed superstar. Giannis Antetokounmpo can't shoot free throws or 3s, and in the playoffs, the Celtics have consistently proven that Milwaukee cannot win by runaway train alone.
Also, 2021 was Khris Middleton's last healthy postseason, and the Bucks haven't been able to replicate the dimension he adds to their offense, which isn't just 3s, but that silky smooth mid-range game. Perhaps most egregiously, they replaced Jrue Holiday with Damian Lillard, an all-time classic swap of underrated winner with overrated loser, which sounds harsh, except Lillard's playoff resume speaks for itself. It was a desperation move designed to keep Giannis happy, and it worked, because he signed a three-year extension a couple of weeks later.
The Celtics have zero contract drama (for this year anyway) because they super-maxed their two stars and surrounded them with the perfect complementary pieces.
So to recap, the Celtics aren't a one-off like the Raptors, old like the Lakers and Warriors, a two-man team like the Nuggets, or making desperation moves like the Bucks.
It doesn't guarantee they'll go back-to-back, but it gives them a better shot than their recent predecessors.
