There are many exciting matchups to watch when the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks square off in the 2024 NBA Finals next Thursday.
But there's one matchup in particular that could help determine which team is hoisting the Larry O'Brien Trophy at the end of the series. Celtics guard Jaylen Brown versus Mavs guard Luke Doncic.
Both are All-NBA caliber players. Doncic has made first team All-NBA five consecutive seasons, while Brown made the second team last year and is a two-way force.
Stay in the game with the latest updates on your beloved Boston sports teams! Sign up here for our All Access Daily newsletter.
Although these players don't guard each other for the entire game, the possessions where they do go head-to-head might play a pivotal role in the outcome.
More Celtics coverage
Doncic is a generational offensive player. He can hit 3-pointers from anywhere. He can do damage off the dribble in the mid-range. He attacks the basket and finishes well at the rim. And he's one of the best at drawing fouls. He shot 10.6 free throws per game in the Western Conference Finals.
He's likely going to score 25-35 points per game in the Finals. What the Celtics need to do is make him inefficient: be physical with Doncic, contest everything, double-team when needed, etc.
The Celtics have four really good perimeter defenders in Brown, Jayson Tatum, Derrick White and Jrue Holiday. All of them are likely to get minutes defending Doncic. Brown, at 6-foot-7 and 223 pounds with elite athleticism, could potentially see a lot of Doncic in this series. Brown is a very good defender, and he even received three votes for All-Defensive first team this season.
Here's a look at how Doncic fared versus Brown in their previous four meetings, including two matchups during the 2023-24 regular season, per the NBA's tracking data. Brown was the primary defender on Doncic for 15 minutes and 24 seconds over the course of these four games.
Doncic fared OK versus Brown but wasn't amazing. And to be clear, no one is expecting Brown to totally shut down Doncic for an entire series. It's going to take a total team effort to limit his effectiveness, and he still might score 30-plus in several games.
The key for the Celtics is to wear down Doncic on the defensive end of the floor. They need to make the Mavericks superstar expend energy defensively. Doncic has been battling knee soreness the entire playoffs. He doesn't look 100 percent healthy despite his stellar performances.
Brown is one player who could give Doncic a lot of trouble on that end of the court. He absolutely dominated the Mavs guard when these teams played in Dallas on Jan. 22. The Celtics star shot 5-of-9 and scored 11 points when Doncic was the primary defender.
Here's how Brown has fared offensively when matched up versus Doncic in the last four Celtics-Mavericks games. Brown shot 12-of-19 (63.1 percent) with 28 points in 7:35 of matchup time over these four games.
Brown has the quickness to gain a step on Doncic when attacking the basket, and he also has the strength to finish through contact.
Here's one example from the regular season meeting back in March:
Brown is playing the best basketball of his career right now. He won Eastern Conference Finals MVP after averaging 29.8 points, five rebounds and three assists per game, while shooting 51.7 percent versus the Indiana Pacers. For the entire playoffs, Brown is scoring a career-high 25 points per game on 54.1 percent shooting.
The Celtics need more than Brown playing at a high level to win this series. Tatum needs to play like a First-Team All-NBA player. Holiday and White need to contribute offensively, especially from 3-point range. Horford and Kristaps Porzingis (if healthy) need to stretch the floor and provide some interior scoring.
But this is one matchup where Brown can really help the Celtics. He's capable of making life tough for Doncic on both ends of the floor. If he's successful, it's hard to see Boston losing the series.