Pritchard's Sixth Man quest among four Celtics early-season surprises

The Boston Celtics will reach double digits in games played with Friday’s visit from the Brooklyn Nets.

Three weeks of regular-season basketball seems to be a large enough sample size to pluck some early-season surprises for a team coming off such a dominant season that it’s not always easy to exceed expectations. But here are four Boston players that are doing just that: 

Getting steamy for Neemi

With Kristaps Porzingis sidelined to start the season and a need to pace 38-year-old Al Horford throughout his 18th NBA season, it was fair to expect that Boston’s depth centers would get a greater opportunity to start the year. But few could have envisioned the way fourth-year center Neemias Queta has embraced his early uptick in play.

Over the last five games, Queta is averaging 8.4 points and 6.6 rebounds over 21 minutes per game, including two spot starts. Here are some numbers that leap off the page with Queta:

Boston’s defensive rating plummets to 95.4 in his 125 minutes on the court. The Celtics are 13.9 points per 100 possessions better with Queta on the court. His +22.7 net rating is the best on the team and 5.7 points per 100 possessions better than Derrick White, a perennial leader in the net rating category.

The 25-year-old Queta isn’t doing much different from his brief cameos last season. But his combination of youthful energy, physicality, and athleticism has paired well with any lineups he’s been thrust into.

The five-man pairing of Queta with White, Horford, Jayson Tatum, and Jrue Holiday is Boston’s second-most common five-man unit this season and has posted a +29.0 net rating in 34 minutes. It’s a super small sample, but of the 42 five-man lineups with at least that much time together this season, that ranks third in the NBA entering Friday’s action.

The Queta/Horford duo has logged 55 minutes together in double big lineups and has a +22.2 net rating. In 72 minutes with Queta as the lone big, Boston’s net rating spikes to +30.6. Queta is second in the NBA in offensive rebound percentage, grabbing 14.7 percent of his team’s missed shots.

Queta repeatedly got put in tough defensive spots Wednesday night against the Warriors, including being asked to defend Steph Curry out near the 3-point line. Queta held up well, even if Boston sometimes got bitten by not having him near the basket to clean up missed shots. That sort of versatility should only help him continue to see the floor, even when Boston’s bigs are at full health.

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Jordan Brand

Second-year wing Jordan Walsh had a forgettable summer and it was fair to wonder if he had shown enough to muscle his way into more consistent playing time in Year 2. But after pledging to put his summer struggles behind him, Walsh distinguished himself with his energy-filled play in the preseason and it’s opened opportunity at the start of the 2024-25 regular season. 

Walsh, dubbed a “violent defender” by his college coach at Arkansas, is showing his defensive potential at the NBA level. Opponents are shooting 13.2 percent below expected output against Walsh to start the season. The 20-year-old is holding opponents to 30.8 percent shooting overall (8-for-26) including just 10 percent beyond the 3-point arc (1-for-10). 

Walsh is showcased his versatility, too, typically guarding bigger forwards, but also taking turns on smaller guards like Charlotte’s Tre Mann. Atlanta’s Jalen Johnson was 0-for-4 shooting against Walsh with two turnovers and a blocked shot in Walsh’s lengthiest head-to-head matchup of the season. 

Walsh has technically played in more games than Xavier Tillman this season, which is a surprise on its own, though Tillman entered Friday’s game with 2 more minutes of floor time overall. 

Walsh's shot still isn’t falling with any regularity -- he’s 4-for-15 to start the season, having missed 10 of 12 3-pointers -- but the shot looks good, and it’s the defense that is Walsh’s ticket to more playing time. Boston’s best rebound rates are during Walsh’s floor time, showing part of the uptick they get from his energetic play.

Pritchard is a (Sixth) Man of the people

Let’s be clear that Payton Pritchard thriving to start the season is far from a surprise. That he’s in the Sixth Man of the Year conversation isn’t really a surprise, either. (Heck, we picked him to win the award before the season.) 

What’s surprising is how fast he went from virtually impossible to find in the Sixth Man betting odds before the season to being entrenched at the top of the odds early in the NBA season. Entering Friday’s action, Pritchard had the best odds (+400) on DraftKings with Golden State’s Buddy Hield (+500) the nearest competitor. 

By now we know how it works with the Sixth Man award. Usually the honor goes to a potent bench scorer, and being on a successful team can help a player’s case, too.  If the Celtics flirt with 60-plus wins and Pritchard remains in a hefty role even when the team is closer to full health, he’s certainly going to be in the conversation.

Pritchard is having his most efficient season of his career to date. He’s averaging 139.0 points per 100 shot attempts, which is best among all point guards in the NBA, per Cleaning the Glass data. Wipe out some of those late-game misses chasing the trash-time 3-point record against the Knicks, and Pritchard is at 56 percent on corner 3-point attempts (9-for-16) and 43 percent above the break (26-for-60).

Even with those misses, he’s at 41.6 percent on 3-pointers overall. A staggering 72.9 percent of Pritchard’s points have come off 3-point attempts, the largest percentage in the NBA. (Klay Thompson is second at 69.8 percent of his points off 3s.)

Pritchard is fourth on the team in minutes behind only the gold-medal trio of Tatum, White, and Holiday. The Celtics own a +14 net rating in his floor time, one season after he finished second in the entire NBA at +13.6 net rating. (Only teammate Sam Hauser, +14.2, was better among all players with at least 65 games played.)

D-White's 3-point barrage

Even in Boston’s 3-point happy offense, it’s been a little jarring to see just how many 3-point shots Derrick White is getting up per night.

Though his first half-season in Boston, White was averaging a mere four 3-point shot attempts per game in his NBA career. This season? That number is up to a staggering 9.6 3-point attempts per game.

No one complaining, though: White is hitting a career-best 41.9 percent of those attempts while averaging 19.8 points per game. If you already suspected White might flirt with All-Star consideration again, his 3-point exploits should only further help him finally knock down that door.

White has reached double figures in 3-point attempts in five of Boston’s nine games. That included hoisting 16 triples (and making a season-high seven) against the Warriors. If teams are going to put all their attention on Tatum, then White is going to make them pay. Just imagine the looks he’ll be getting when Jaylen Brown is back from his hip injury. 

White’s scoring average is up 4.6 points per game from last season, jumping to 19.8 points per game thanks to his 3-point shooting. White is tied for 37th in the NBA in points per game after ranking 72nd for the 2023-24 season.