What if Celtics remained healthy for entire 2020-21 season?
Injuries and games missed with players in the COVID-19 health and safety protocols have prevented the Boston Celtics from developing much consistency during the 2020-21 season.This includes individual player consistency and team chemistry. For example, the quartet of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Kemba Walker and Marcus Smart has only played 18 games together this season.What if the Celtics were mostly healthy in 2021? Our partners at Strat-O-Matic simulated the entire 2020-21 campaign, including the playoffs, to see where Boston would finish.The results were interesting, to say the least. Let's dive in.
Injuries are part of the game, but for the Celtics, they have played a huge factor in the team's rollercoaster of results throughout the regular season.
The team has rarely been fully intact as different players battle injuries and go into the league's health and safety protocols.
The Celtics' roster on paper is loaded with talent. So, what if the group was mostly healthy this season? Strat-O-Matic simulated that scenario, keeping injuries across the league in line with normal activity. Some of the results were surprising...
How much have the Celtics been negatively impacted by injuries in the real 2020-21 season? Well, they've lost the third-most games to injuries and health/safety protocols among teams in a playoff spot.
And it's not like the majority of these games lost are only from bench or end-of-the-rotation players. The team's five-best players have all missed at least seven games.
Injuries aren't usually a great excuse for disappointing results, but in the Celtics' case, it's a legitimate reason for the team's inconsistent play. It's hard to build the ideal amount of chemistry when one or multiple important players are almost always out of the lineup.
It's no surprise that a healthier Celtics team was able to finish second in the Atlantic Division and third overall in the Eastern Conference standings with a 43-29 record. Only the Brooklyn Nets finished above Boston as one of the league's four 50-win teams.
The Hawks were the most surprising team in the simulation. Atlanta is battling the C's for the No. 4 seed in real life, but it finished a lackluster 26-48 in the simulation, which tied for the third-worst record in the East.
The Nuggets also finished under .500 at 34-38 a year after reaching the Western Conference Finals. The Golden State Warriors struggled to the third-worst record in the West despite Stephen Curry scoring 31.1 points per game.
Tatum took a superstar leap in this simulation and led the Celtics with a career-high 27.9 points per game. His offensive surge was fueled by a career-best 43.8 percent rate on 580 3-point shots.
The Celtics' future, in many ways, rests on Tatum playing at a top 10 level throughout his prime, and he's on that trajectory in this simulation.
Walker finished second on the team at 19.6 points per game. His shooting percentages were less than ideal -- 40.6 from the field and 36.4 from 3-point range -- but the good news was Walker played 71 of a possible 72 games. Health has been a major concern for Walker in the real 2020-21 season -- he missed the first 11 games and still isn't playing any back-to-backs.
Perhaps the strangest outcomes from the simulation were the disappointing stat lines for Jaylen Brown and Robert Williams.
Instead of taking a leap to All-Star status, Brown scored just 16.7 points per game -- nearly a 4-point decrease from the previous season. His field goal, 3-point and free throw percentages all decreased, too. It was a strange decline for Brown after a strong 2019-20 campaign.
Williams didn't take a leap, either, despite playing in a career-high 64 games. He was a non-factor offensively, averaging just 2.4 points per game. He also didn't make a tremendous impact as a rebounder.
As you will see on the next slide, it's not surprising the Celtics' playoff run came to a disappointing end when you factor in the lack of improvement from Brown and Williams in this simulation.
The Celtics had homecourt advantage in the No. 3 vs. No. 6 first-round matchup versus the New York Knicks. It was the 15th playoff series between these rivals and the first since 2013.
The Knicks earned a split in Boston to open the series and won Game 3 at Madison Square Garden for a 2-1 lead, but the Celtics won the next three games to earn a 4-2 series triumph.
The next round was a short one for the C's. They were swept in four games to the No. 2 seed Brooklyn Nets, led by superstars Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and James Harden. Even Jayson Tatum's career playoff high 38 points in Game 2 weren't enough to earn Boston a victory.
