The New England Patriots' path to landing Caleb Williams or Drake Maye just got a lot more complicated.
The Patriots entered Sunday night's game against the Denver Broncos with the No. 2 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft thanks to their 3-11 record, which was tied with the Arizona Cardinals for second-worst in the NFL behind the 2-12 Carolina Panthers.
Then a series of improbable events unfolded in Denver, where New England stunned the Broncos as 7-point underdogs on Sunday night in a 26-23 Christmas Eve victory.
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That loss bumped the Patriots, at 4-11, down to the No. 4 pick, as the Arizona Cardinals (3-12) and Washington Commanders (4-11) vaulted to No. 2 and No. 3, respectively, with their losses on Sunday. The first tiebreaker for draft order is reverse strength of schedule, and the Commanders (.520) project to have a slightly easier strength of schedule than the Patriots (.522), per Tankathon, meaning they would win the tiebreaker.
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It might be hard for New England to catch either team, too. After their loss to the New York Jets on a last-second field goal Sunday, the Commanders finish their 2023 season against two elite NFC teams in the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys. The Cardinals, meanwhile, finish with the 10-4 Philadelphia Eagles and 8-7 Seattle Seahawks.
So, if Washington and Arizona both lose out against those superior opponents, the Patriots will finish with no better than a No. 3 pick and likely the No. 4 pick unless they overtake the Commanders in strength of schedule.
The Patriots entered the weekend with the chance to vault the Chicago Bears (via the Carolina Panthers) for the No. 1 overall selection and their pick of two elite quarterback prospects in Williams and Maye. But New England's win combined with losses by Carolina, Arizona and Washington dramatically changed the top-four landscape -- and not in the Patriots' favor.
Here's a look at the current 2024 NFL Draft order, which we'll update through the remaining Week 16 games:
10. Atlanta Falcons, 7-8
9. New York Jets, 6-9
8. Chicago Bears, 6-9
7. Tennessee Titans, 5-10
6. Los Angeles Chargers, 5-10
5. New York Giants, 5-10
4. New England Patriots, 4-11
3. Washington Commanders, 4-11
2. Arizona Cardinals, 3-12
1. Chicago Bears (via Carolina Panthers, 2-13)