The New England Patriots gave another ugly performance in Week 17 with a 40-7 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers at Gillette Stadium on Saturday afternoon.
The defeat dropped the Patriots to a 3-13 record at the bottom of the AFC. They are guaranteed to win four or fewer games in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 1967 through 1970, when the franchise was called the Boston Patriots.
There was some good news for the Patriots this past weekend, though. The Patriots' loss, combined with the New York Giants' win over the Indianapolis Colts, moved New England from the No. 2 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft order up to the No. 1 pick.
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ESPN Analytics gives the Patriots a 78.1 percent chance of finishing with the No. 1 pick, ahead of the Tennessee Titans in second place at 11.9 percent odds. New England is the only team guaranteed to finish with a top-five pick regardless of what happens in Week 18.
There are four teams that still have a mathematical chance to get the No. 1 pick: Patriots, Titans, Giants and Browns.
The Patriots haven't owned the No. 1 pick in the draft since 1993 when they selected Washington State quarterback Drew Bledsoe, which turned out pretty good.
It's usually good for teams to finish the season with a win and maybe build some positivity and momentum for the following year. But that couldn't be further from the truth for the Patriots. They need to lose this game, get the No. 1 pick, and then use that selection to add much-needed premium talent to their roster over the upcoming offseason.
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The 2025 draft class likely will be headlined by two premier quarterback prospects -- Colorado's Shedeur Sanders and Miami's Cam Ward -- so securing a top-two pick is the ideal scenario for the Patriots. Those two picks will be the most valuable by far (unlike last year when the top three picks had immense value due to three franchise-level QB prospects being available), so the Patriots could receive a big return if they trade down.
What are the draft pick scenarios for the Patriots entering the regular season finale against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday?
Let's take a look below:
Loss vs. Bills guarantees Patriots the No. 1 pick
The easiest way for the Patriots to secure the top overall pick is to lose to the Bills on Sunday.
That result would guarantee the Patriots pick first in the 2025 draft. The Patriots have the lowest strength of schedule rating, so if they finish tied with multiple teams that have a 3-14 record, they will own the tiebreaker for the No. 1 pick.
What happens if the Patriots beat the Bills?
If the Patriots win Sunday and the Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns and New York Giants all win as well, they would still keep the No. 1 pick. The more likely scenario is that they fall to No. 2, No. 3, No. 4. It would depend on the results of the other three-win and four-win teams.
Here are the Week 18 matchups for the four three-win teams, and their win probability based on ESPN Analytics:
- Patriots (21.1 percent chance to win): vs. Bills on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
- Browns (11.3 percent): at Ravens on Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET
- Titans (46.2 percent): vs. Texans on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
- Giants (17.3 percent): at Eagles on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET
The Bills have nothing to play for against the Patriots, so they will likely play their backups the entire game. Buffalo has already clinched the AFC East and No. 2 playoff seed. It's also possible the Patriots might not play rookie quarterback Drake Maye. Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo was asked Monday about the idea of sitting Maye, and he told reporters that "everything is in consideration."
The Texans have nothing to play for against the Titans. Houston has already secured the AFC South and the No. 4 seed.
The Ravens still haven't clinched the AFC North, but they would if they beat the Browns. Baltimore could still clinch its division with a loss, but why take the risk? Winning the division would guarantee the Ravens at least one home playoff game.
The Eagles have nothing to play for against the Giants. Philly has already clinched the NFC East and the No. 2 seed. The Giants, as evidenced in their win versus the Colts in Week 17, are still playing hard. It's possible they could beat the Eagles' backups.
The Patriots are likely to have a worse strength of schedule than any three- or four-win teams, which means they would own the tiebreaker for the better pick.
Worst-case scenario for Patriots is falling to No. 4
As a result of the Lions' win over the 49ers on Monday (Week 17), the Patriots cannot finish lower than the No. 4 pick, regardless of what happens in Week 18. The Jaguars aren't be able to catch the Patriots in the strength of schedule tiebreaker.
For the Patriots to drop to No. 4, they would have to beat the Bills, combined with the Titans, Browns and Giants all losing in Week 18. The Patriots would have the lowest strength of schedule rating of the four-win teams, thus giving them the No. 4 overall selection.