The good news for Mike Vrabel is that he doesn't need a quarterback heading into next month's NFL Draft. The bad news for him is that there are only two non-quarterback prospects considered "blue-chip" talents, and he has the No. 4 overall pick.
Those two players would be, of course, Penn State pass-rusher Abdul Carter and Colorado dual threat Heisman-winner Travis Hunter. No guarantee the Patriots get either one.
The case for a trade down, then, is a relatively easy one to make.
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If Carter and Hunter are both gone, look for buyers. Picks No. 4-12 or so could end up being where a cluster of "red-chip" players end up being selected. If there's no drastically discernible difference between the grade for a player available to the Patriots at No. 4 or a player available six slots later, why not try to move down and add to their stockpile of draft picks in the process? This is a team, after all, with multiple needs to fill.
"Making the Case For" series
Vrabel and his front office might actually have the opportunity to get the player they want several spots later after passing initially. For example, might LSU tackle Will Campbell be there for New England further down the board? He's not a perfect prospect, but he might be the best fit for them at No. 4 overall, and he still might be there for them later after a move down.
There could be a massive wrench thrown into the machinery here if no one, y'know, wants to trade up and take the No. 4 pick from the Patriots. Perhaps the Patriots could find a taker in the Raiders (picking at No. 6) if they want a long-term answer at quarterback after signing Geno Smith. Maybe the Saints (No. 9) are on the lookout for a Derek Carr replacement.
If someone is willing to buy the No. 4 pick, and if Hunter and Carter are off the board, moving back isn't all that complicated a call.
Where things get a little messier is if the Patriots would consider moving out of the No. 4 overall pick even if Carter or Hunter were still on the board.
Scouts and executives who've spoken to NBC Sports Boston suggest that the Patriots should simply go ahead and take one of those two options if they're available. The best-player-available approach is the soundest, and there are two players this year who simply stand above the rest. Hunter has been compared to receivers Garrett Wilson and DeVonta Smith, and his best position might actually be corner. Carter has drawn comparisons to the likes of Micah Parsons and Von Miller.
If those guys are there, keep it simple.
But let's roll through a quick hypothetical here. Say the Titans take Miami quarterback Cam Ward with the first overall pick. Then let's assume the quarterback-needy Browns take the next best option in Colorado's Shedeur Sanders. At No. 3 overall, in this scenario, the Giants go with Hunter to pair him with last year's first-rounder Malik Nabers. That seems like the more likely choice for them with the third pick since they already have both Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux to play on the edge of their defense.
Is there any world in which the Patriots would consider moving off the No. 4 pick, and the chance to take Carter, if presented with the right kind of offer? Taking Carter would mean the vast majority of Vrabel's offseason resources would continue to go to the defensive side of the ball, where he picked up defensive tackle Milton Williams, corner Carlton Davis III, pass-rusher Harold Landry and linebacker Bobby Spillane in free agency.
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Carter would help form a formidable young core of premium defenders for years to come alongside Williams and corner Christian Gonzalez. For Vrabel, that would have to be an incredibly enticing proposition.
But what about the offense?
Would the Patriots hesitate to take the more surefire prospect and instead look to move down to take a lineman or a pass-catcher? What if there was a team offering a second-rounder -- or perhaps even a future first -- to get into position to draft the Nittany Lions star?
Even if the Patriots missed on the opportunity to snag Campbell by moving down, Texas tackle Kelvin Banks Jr., Missouri tackle Armand Membou, Penn State tight end Tyler Warren or Arizona receiver Tetairoa McMillan might be available. Taking one might make them feel as though they were giving second-year quarterback Drake Maye a level of support he wouldn't be getting if the team used its top-five pick on a defensive player.
That still seems like an unlikely outcome, though. If Hunter is there, take him. If Carter is there, take him.
It's only if they're both gone that the argument for trading down becomes an easier one to formulate.