Obsessed with quarterback drama, roster lamentations, and Game of Throne power dynamics, we've neglected to ask a fundamental question that could determine whether this upcoming Patriots season is run-of-the-mill bad or historically so: Can Jerod Mayo coach?
We have zero idea, and that could be as damaging as the woeful lack of talent. It may very well spell the difference between a five-win season and bags on our heads.
If the Patriots trail the Bengals 21-0 at halftime of the opener, will Mayo have answers? If the Patriots find themselves needing to maximize every second in the final two minutes of a close game, will he master the clock? When injuries inevitably require a pivot, will he land on solutions or sink below the waves?
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It might be the biggest single unknown of this new era, and we're off to a bad start.
Mayo botched the quarterback decision, turning what should've been a straightforward pronouncement of patience into a phony competition between veteran Jacoby Brissett and No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye. The job was Brissett's all along as evidenced by his first-team practice reps, but Mayo mixed his messaging in a Vitamix set to pulverize, vacillating between "Jacoby's our starter" and "Drake's outplaying him."
By the time he announced Brissett during a bizarre two-question press conference on Thursday, we were already doubting his leadership. Wonder what his players are thinking?
🔊 Patriots Talk Podcast: Brian Hoyer goes deep on decision to start Jacoby Brissett over Drake Maye | Listen & Subscribe | Watch on YouTube
Making matters worse, it's not like Mayo is replacing some bum. For all of Bill Belichick's faults at the end from a stubbornness and personnel perspective, he never lost the ability to scheme the crap out of his team.
Last year's overmatched Patriots nearly dropped the Eagles in the opener, gave the Super Bowl-champion Chiefs a scare, and beat the Bills. Outside of early-season blowouts to the Cowboys and Saints, they were competitive in virtually every game, thanks to a defense that thrived without Pro Bowl pass rusher Matthew Judon or exciting rookie Christian Gonzalez. In lesser hands, the defense easily could've collapsed as completely as Mac Jones and the offense.
The game may have passed Belichick by stylistically (who needs game-breaking speed when you can draft a kicker AND punter!), but he never lost the ability to X or O. The Patriots will almost assuredly regress in this regard, and it's not just about Mayo.
Whereas young coaches usually hire experienced assistants, the Patriots have chosen a different tack. Mayo's surrounded by rookies not just on the roster -- there are 10 -- but on his coaching staff, too. Offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt will be the primary play-caller for the first time in his career. Ditto for defensive coordinator DeMarcus Covington. Special teams coach Jeremy Springer is yet another greenhorn.
When the maelstrom swirls at 3:30 or so every Sunday and Mayo needs to keep a cool head in a crisis, he won't exactly have a been-there, done-that support system. Everyone will be learning on the fly, which makes them that much more likely to crash.
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It's a staggering risk by Patriots ownership. The Krafts hand-picked Mayo as Belichick's successor on the assumption the hoodie would hang around a couple of more years to pass Don Shula before handing his grateful understudy the keys. Maybe in that time, he'd even show him the sun and the stars, as was once promised to Josh McDaniels in one of the more gag-inducing anecdotes of the championship era.
Instead, Belichick coached himself out of New England and by all accounts iced Mayo out on his way out the door. The selfless mentor routine really didn't suit him.
Now the Patriots find themselves seeking a new way forward with a coach who might be in over his head. A week from Sunday in Cincinnati, who plays quarterback could end up being the least of our worries.