Albert Breer breaks down some interesting stats on rookie QBs taking a red shirt year, and why it’ll be especially hard for the Patriots to hold off on playing Drake Maye.
The New England Patriots took Drake Maye with the No. 3 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft to help the franchise return to prominence.
But that pursuit won't begin with Week 1 of the regular season.
The Patriots announced Thursday that veteran Jacoby Brissett will be the starting quarterback. Maye outplayed Brissett in the preseason and in several practices over the last few weeks, but it wasn't enough for him to win the No. 1 job.
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The debate now is, when will Maye finally see the field? Is it actually possible that he could sit the whole season?
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Well, based on recent history, Maye not playing at all in his rookie season would definitely be an outlier.
"The whole thing on rookie quarterbacks changed in 2008 when Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco made the playoffs with their teams," Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer said Thursday on NBC Sports Boston's Early Edition, as seen in the video player above.
"There have been 16 draft cycles since then, from 2008 to 2023 and not including this year. Forty-eight quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round over those 16 drafts, and there's been only three true redshirts -- Patrick Mahomes in 2017, Jordan Love in 2020 and Jake Locker in 2011.
"What those guys all had in common was, they were playing for teams that were contending to the very end, and they were playing behind accomplished veteran quarterbacks."
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Mahomes sat behind Alex Smith, who was a very good QB and guided the Chiefs to the playoffs with an 10-6 record in 2017. Love was the backup for Aaron Rodgers, who won league MVP in 2020 and led the Packers to the NFC Championship Game. Locker played behind Matt Hasselbeck as the 2011 Titans went 9-7 and barely missed the playoffs.
Brissett is not someone who is going to lead the Patriots to the playoffs. He's not at that level, and neither is the team as a whole. He's a bridge quarterback. This, among other factors, is why it would be so surprising if Maye didn't play at all in 2024.
"The Patriots are going to have to be historically disciplined to give Drake Maye a full redshirt year," Breer said. "This is part of why I think Atlanta is at a little bit of an advantage with the way they're set up. There's going to be no pressure for them to play Michael Penix Jr. because Kirk Cousins is there.
"What generally happens in these situations is you have a bridge guy, which is what Jacoby Brissett is, and then you get six, eight, 10 games into the season and it's clear to everybody, including the locker room, that the rookie probably gives you the best chance in the short term."
The Patriots could weigh several factors before deciding when is the right time to start Maye. One of them could be the offensive line, which has been a huge weakness for this team for some time. The last thing the Patriots would want is for Maye to be sacked 40-plus times and be running for his life on most plays, like David Carr in 2002. The schedule is another potential factor. New England has one of the league's toughest schedules, especially early on with matchups against the Bengals, Jets, 49ers and Dolphins in the first five weeks.
Whatever the Patriots decide, this is a decision they absolutely have to get right. The short- and long-term success of the franchise depends on it.
