The New England Patriots are in a decent spot in regards to securing a top-three pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, but that outcome is still far from a slam dunk entering the final week of the regular season.
The Patriots will host the rival New York Jets -- who they have beaten 15 consecutive times dating back to 2015 -- in Sunday's Week 18 finale at Gillette Stadium.
A win would almost certainly eliminate any chance of the Patriots getting a top-three pick. They would need a lot of help in that scenario. A loss to the Jets gives them the best possible odds, but even that outcome doesn't guarantee a top-three pick.
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Here are the odds of the Patriots, Commanders, Cardinals and Giants finishing with the No. 2 pick or a top-three selection, per Seth Walder of ESPN Analytics.
The Patriots, Commanders and Cardinals are all tied for the second-worst record in the league at 4-12. Strength of schedule (SOS) is the first tiebreaker, and the Commanders own that tiebreaker entering Week 18 because theirs is the lowest of the group.
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The current draft order for the top four is as follows:
No. 4: Arizona Cardinals, 4-12, .562 SOS
No. 3: New England Patriots, 4-12, .518 SOS
No. 2: Washington Commanders, 4-11, .515 SOS
No. 1: Chicago Bears (via Carolina Panthers, 2-14, .518 SOS)
If the Patriots and Commanders are both 4-13 after Sunday's games, strength of schedule will be the deciding factor in which team gets the No. 2 pick. Tankathon.com identified the five Week 18 outcomes that would impact the Patriots' strength of schedule rating in the most positive way for them:
- Falcons beat Saints
- Steelers beat Ravens
- Texans beat Colts
- Bears beat Packers
- Broncos beat Raiders
The best thing the Patriots can do Sunday to improve their chances of getting at least the No. 3 pick is lose to the Jets. If the Patriots beat the Jets, they will need a lot of help to remain in the top three.