Before we get into the Week 4 picks, let's first revisit Week 3, which gave us a new leader atop the standings.
Amina Smith went a perfect 3-0 to improve to 7-2 on the season. When asked for comment, Smith stoically replied "I'm in it to win, Giles."
Amina holds a slight lead over the Breakdown Boys, Phil Perry and Ted Johnson, while the Boston Sports Tonight crew of Michael Felger and Michael Holley struggled with a pair of 0-3 weeks.
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BUT! A grand total of four points separates the bottom from the top...
Let's get to this week's picks:
Week 4 Trends
Patriots popularity growing
Six people have weighed in on the Patriots getting +6.5 at the Cowboys on Sunday, with four taking New England and two (including John Tomase, who has made it his mission to fade the Patriots) laying the points with Dallas.
For what it's worth, the majority has ruled in the first three Patriots games this season. In Week 1, it was 6-0 in Philly's favor (Eagles cover). In Week 2, it was 4-1 in Miami's favor (Dolphins cover). And Week 3 was 3-2 in favor of New England (Patriots cover).
MORE PATRIOTS COVERAGE
The last time New England (ML +225) won outright as an underdog of six points or more was in 2020 when it knocked off the Ravens (-7) in Foxboro. The last time the Patriots won outright on the road as an underdog of six or more was the season opener of 2016 when Jimmy Garoppolo knocked off the Arizona Cardinals (-9).
One-sided favorites
Both the Chiefs and Eagles are favored by nine this weekend, and both are getting four bets from our crew with zero opposition.
Philadelphia (2-0-1 ATS) has looked stronger each week and hosts a Washington team that may have overachieved the first two weeks. Kansas City (2-1 ATS) is visiting a Jets team that will still - somehow, inexplicably -- be quarterbacked by Zach Wilson.
Split decisions
The game of the week kicks off at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday when the 3-0 Dolphins visit the 2-1 Bills.
Despite blowing out Denver in Week 3, Miami is getting +2.5 as it visits Buffalo. We've got two bets on the Dolphins and two on the Bills. Buffalo (2-1 ATS) has won seven straight home games against Miami (3-0 ATS) and this game features the highest total of the weekend at 54.5.
Our other 2-2 split decision isn't nearly as sexy, and qualifies as one of the more unwatchable matchups of the weekend. Pittsburgh (2-1 ATS) is laying -2.5 on the road at Houston (1-2 ATS).
It's hard to erase the image of the Steelers getting crushed by the 49ers in Week 1, but Kenny Pickett has been pretty good: 5-1 ATS in his last six games and 10-5 ATS overall.
Five games we were too afraid to touch
- BAL +3 AT CLE
- TB +3.5 AT NO
- LAR -1 AT IND
- LV +5.5 AT LAC
- SEA -1 AT NYG