It’s about that time. With the NFL Draft still not all that far off in our rearview, let’s take an absurdly-early look ahead to the start of September and try to project the shape of the Patriots' 53-man roster for Week 1.
As you’ll find, the roster churn here is real. After a four-win 2022, the Patriots clearly have gone about trying to overhaul their offense — particularly in the draft, where seven of their eight picks were used to address that side of the ball. And it shows in this initial projection.
More than half of the offensive players you’ll find on this list (14 of 23) are new to the club this offseason. That includes all three active-roster quarterbacks.
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Let’s start at that spot as we dive in. (Players listed in italics are rookies.)
Quarterback (3): Jacoby Brissett, Drake Maye, Joe Milton
Whether or not Drake Maye is the starter to begin the season -- my guess right now is that he won't be, but I wouldn't rule it out -- we know who the top two quarterbacks on the depth chart will be: Maye and Brissett.
After that? Keeping Joe Milton as a third makes sense if he's showing the Patriots everything they need to see through the summer to know that he's improving. If the Patriots were to release him, they'd risk losing him to a team looking to add some quarterback depth with a rare specimen at the position.
In this scenario, the Patriots would be moving on from both Nathan Rourke and Bailey Zappe.
Running back (3): Rhamondre Stevenson, Antonio Gibson, Kevin Harris
This group feels remarkably thin. Stevenson is a true all-purpose back when healthy, but he finished last season banged up, and he entered the season as a less-than-full participant in camp.
It's the nature of this position. Injuries happen. It just doesn't seem like this unit is all that prepared to handle an emergency situation.
Harris is far from a lock, but he's built in such a way that he could grind away on handoffs between the tackles should Stevenson go down. He’s really the only reserve back on the roster who looks suited for those duties at the moment.
Keep an eye here on Oregon State undrafted rookie DeShaun Fenwick, who measures about 6-feet and 220 pounds.
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Wide receiver (5): Ja'Lynn Polk, DeMario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne, Javon Baker, K.J. Osborn
The Patriots put their receiver room on notice on draft weekend. JuJu Smith-Schuster is no lock. Neither is Tyquan Thornton.
Douglas should be among the staples here along with rookies Polk and Baker. K.J. Osborn is sure to stick after receiving over $3 million guaranteed this offseason. Ditto for Kendrick Bourne, who was given $5.5 million guaranteed this offseason after re-signing.
If Bourne isn't ready to come back right away after last year's season-ending knee injury -- though he said he would be this offseason -- perhaps that lands him on the physically unable to perform list, opening a slot for someone who's been left off here.
Tight end (4): Hunter Henry, Austin Hooper, Mitchell Wilcox, Jaheim Bell
After Henry and Hooper, this unit is far from solidified at this point. But let's roll with four here.
Wilcox is a real NFL-caliber blocker and special-teams player, and he's durable. He's played all but three games over the course of the last three seasons. And with the kickoff coming back into play this year, teams will need players with good size and athleticism -- perhaps more size and slightly less long speed than what was required in years past -- to be able to execute under the new rules.
We're adding Bell here, too, as a big-and-fast (88th percentile 40-yard dash) blocking or coverage option on kickoffs and kick returns. With all the uncertainty surrounding the kickoff moving forward, teams will have to build their rosters with that play in mind.
Offensive line (8): David Andrews, Sidy Sow, Layden Robinson, Nick Leverett, Mike Onwenu, Chukwuma Okorafor, Caedan Wallace, Calvin Anderson
After Andrews, Onwenu, Sow, Robinson, Wallace and Okorafor, it's hard to know how the rest of this room will be filled out. Leverett gives the team a multi-faceted interior backup with some NFL experience. (He started 10 games for the Bucs in 2022.) He'll have to beat out Jake Andrews -- a fourth-round rookie a year ago -- for that role.
Anderson was thought to be in the running as a starter last offseason before he dealt with an illness that derailed his 2023. If he's healthy and looks good in camp, he could be an option for them on the outside. Cole Strange isn't on here after he was banged up to finish last year. Looks like he hasn't been participating fully in the voluntary portion of the offseason program. Perhaps he's a PUP candidate early.
With this group, the question would be what the starting lineup looks like. Could be Okorafor at left tackle, Robinson at left guard, Andrews at center, Sow at right guard and Onwenu at right tackle.
Perhaps Wallace can beat out Okorafor. Or perhaps Onwenu moves to the left side, opening up an opportunity on the right for Okorafor or Wallace. Still plenty to be resolved here.
Special teams (3): Chad Ryland, Joe Cardona, Bryce Baringer
No changes here from last year's unit, but it would come as little surprise if the Patriots brought in some competition for Ryland after his roller-coaster rookie year.
Defensive line (6): Keion White, Deatrich Wise, Christian Barmore, Davon Godchaux, Armon Watts, Daniel Ekuale
Pretty strong group here. The big change from a year ago would be Watts in for longtime Patriots trench staple Lawrence Guy. But it remains a versatile group with White and Wise able to play both inside and out.
Barmore -- fresh off a new extension -- has established himself as an every-down defender. Godchaux was the anchor of a highly-effective run defense last year, and Ekuale has some juice to rush the quarterback in third-down and two-minute situations.
Inside linebacker (6): Ja'Whaun Bentley, Jahlani Tavai, Marte Mapu, Sione Takitaki, Christian Elliss, Raekwon McMillan
This would be a fairly large group for new linebackers coach Dont'a Hightower. But the first four names feel like sure things for the roster.
Mapu is one name whose role isn't the easiest to envision because he's a bit of a "tweener," but whether he's a linebacker or a safety... he was a third-round pick just a year ago, and he's a pretty impressive height-weight-speed athlete so the assumption here is that he sticks. Elliss would be another "we have to make sure we have capable kickoff and kick coverage players this year" selection.
McMillan has the versatility to play in the kicking game and the veteran savvy to play on the defensive side. The only question with him is health as he missed all of last year. He hasn't played more than 250 defensive snaps in a season since 2019.
Outside linebacker (4): Matthew Judon, Anfernee Jennings, Joshua Uche, Oshane Ximines
The post-draft acquisition of the veteran Ximines seems to be an indication that the Patriots felt as though they could use some depth here, even with the roster open to 90 players. They didn't add a linebacker in the draft. And outside of Judon, Jennings and Uche, they didn't have any true outside 'backers.
Tavai, Bentley and others have the ability to play a few different spots in the front seven, but with an injury or two, things could get a dicey at this spot. Ximines has real kicking-game experience which helps his odds here as well.
Cornerback (6): Christian Gonzalez, Jonathan Jones, Marcus Jones, Alex Austin, Shaun Wade, Marcellas Dial
After the top-three at this position, it feels wide open. Austin showed some promise late last season. Wade has enough in the way of impressive physical traits that he's been able to stick around in a Mayo-led defense for several seasons.
Dial gives the Patriots some real upside and... wait for it... special-teams potential due to his athleticism and aggressive play style.
Safety (5): Kyle Dugger, Jabrill Peppers, Brenden Schooler, Jaylinn Hawkins, Isaiah Bolden
Just as was the case with the corner group, the top three here look rock solid. Schooler likely will be a special-teams-only option, but he should be on the active roster to start the season because of his effectiveness in that phase.
Hawkins has played over 200 special-teams snaps in two of the last three seasons, and in 2022 (the year he didn't) he saw almost 1,000 defensive snaps. He's an NFL-caliber player who looks like the third safety and a core special-teamer.
Bolden might be a bit of a forgotten man by some after missing all of last season following a scary preseason head injury in Green Bay. But he may make the team based solely on his kickoff-return ability. Under the new rule, because the coverage units can't create layers in the same ways they did under the old setup, an athletic returner who can break one tackle may be an explosive-play machine.
Having both Bolden and Marcus Jones back healthy could give the Patriots a pair of tough-to-corral options in the kicking game.