Through three games, the Patriots are 1-2. Not wholly unexpected. Their road to that record, though, has been interesting.
They self-destructed against Philly in the first 12 minutes. Then they outplayed a very good team over the next 48 minutes but couldnât make up the 16-0 stagger.
They dug themselves a 17-3 hole against Miami by allowing drives to disintegrate with sacks and a fumble and allowing long conversions. They scrapped. They battled. Then they sabotaged their comeback hopes with penalties, picks, sacks and a home-run touchdown run allowed.
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They had the Jets in a hammerlock then let their collars get tight down the stretch and had to survive a game-winning Hail Mary attempt to win 15-10.
They have an aptitude for flocking up late. Maybe itâs cosmic payback for all the times they were the ones doing the heart-ripping. Maybe we only have 17 more years of this to watch before weâre back even.
They seeeeeeeem close. Glass half-full types are saying, âIf they just clean things upâŠâ Glass half-empty types are saying, âThis is who they are. A team that finds a way to self-sabotage.â
But opportunity knocks this week in Dallas. On the road against a 2-1 team thatâs dinged up on the offensive line (no Tyron Smith) and missing a Pro Bowl corner (Trayvon Diggs).
And when you scrutinize the Cowboys' three games (40-0 against the Giants, 30-10 against the Jets and last weekâs 28-16 loss to Arizona), itâs not that great a start for Dallas. The Patriots have played better competition. The combined record of the Patriotsâ opponents is 7-2; Dallasâ is 3-6. Dallas got the drop on the Giants with a 16-0 lead by the end of the first thanks to two return touchdowns, then beat the Jets with a two first-half touchdowns and five field goals, then couldnât muster more than one touchdown against Arizona.
They arenât really ripping teams up with the Dak Prescott-led offense. Theyâve got 10 field goals in three games, an indicator of not being lights out in the red zone (27th in the league) or in goal-to-go (29th).
This is a chance for the Patriots to show theyâve learned something from all these weeks of spitting the bit and finding ways to lose. On the road against a team with a defensive phenom (Micah Parsons), a No. 1 wide receiver (CeeDee Lamb) and a well-regarded quarterback.
To win in Dallas, the Patriots themselves have to actually finish some drives. Do you realize theyâve only put up more than 20 offensive points three times in the past 17 games? They scored five offensive touchdowns against Cleveland last October. They scored three in last yearâs finale against Buffalo. They had three in the opener against Philly.
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There are indicators theyâre a better team this year. Offensively, they are better in the red zone (5th in the NFL), in goal-to-go (1st) and on third down (13th). Last season they finished 32nd, 28th and 27th in those categories. You can say, even though itâs a limited sample size, thereâs a Bill OâBrien effect.
But their identity remains muddled. Itâs clear theyâd like to be a ball-control team. But they havenât run it with consistent effectiveness. There are contributing factors. They had two rookies on the offensive line in the opener against a very good Eagles front. They were missing Trent Brown and had Mike Onwenu and Cole Strange on the field for the first time in Week 2. And they ran it well in Week 3 against an outstanding Jets front.
But they are still a station-to-station team that doesnât make much in the way of big plays. They have two passes of 25 yards or more (tied for 28th in the league) and one was the well-schemed tight end-leak-out throw last week to Pharaoh Brown. That counts too, but itâs not exactly âour guy beat your guyâ football.
They have three plays of 20 yards or more, last in the league. They also have the second-highest number of third-down attempts in the league (49, trailing Houstonâs 52), which shows theyâre a station-to-station offense that just doesnât make a ton of yards on first and second down.
Their first-and-10 balance is perfect. Theyâve had 84 chances and have run in 42 and thrown in 42. Theyâre averaging 7.12 yards when they throw it on first-and-10 and 4.02 when they run it on first-and-10.
But theyâve wound up in third-and-5 or worse 28 times in their 49 third-down chances. And 14 times theyâve been in third-and-10 or worse (including seven times in third-and-16 or worse, the most in the league).
The Patriots have to figure out how to stop baby-stepping down the field. They know this.
âI love chunk plays,â said Jones, who is ninth in the league in Next Gen Statsâ âaggressiveness percentageâ and 10th highest in air yards per attempt (8.6).
âMy whole career, Iâve kind of thrived off those, play action and normal chunk plays, so just trying to keep doing them,â he said. âYouâve got to keep the hook in the water ⊠I think weâll hit them. Weâre working on it. Iâve looked at other teams in the league and how they do it, and kind of gotten a really good idea of how I can improve on it, how we can improve on it as a team. The offensive lineâs doing good protecting, so we definitely need to hit them, and looking forward to just growing in that area.
âItâs sometimes hard when you keep hearing that you want more play action and explosive plays, but when you look at the tape, thereâs a lot of good things that weâre doing and weâre definitely going to improve,â said Jones.
OâBrien said the same thing a day earlier: âWeâll continue to do whatâs best for us in order to win the football game, but we definitely need to improve getting the ball down the field, chunk plays.â
The Patriots can get a big chunk of respect this week if they can go into Dallas, play cleanly, be prolific on offense and walk out with a win against a better-than-average team. I think they will.