Patriots-Dolphins: Spread, over/under picks for Week 1

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The New England Patriots will open their 2022 NFL season in South Beach, but they won't be facing the same old Miami Dolphins.

Former San Francisco 49ers offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel will make his head coaching debut for Miami. The Dolphins also bolstered their offense during the offseason with the additions of wide receiver Tyreek Hill, running backs Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert, and tackle Terron Armstead. Those are significant upgrades, but their success still depends on whether third-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa can make a leap in his development.

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On the other side, Bill Belichick will begin his 23rd season as Patriots head coach. With Josh McDaniels out of the picture, Matt Patricia and Joe Judge have returned to the coaching staff to tag-team the offensive responsibilities. Quarterback Mac Jones will look to build off a promising rookie campaign with a new weapon in ex-Dolphins wideout DeVante Parker.

So, what should we expect in Sunday's regular-season opener? Here are our spread and over/under picks for the Patriots-Dolphins Week 1 showdown. Kickoff is set for 1 p.m. ET at Hard Rock Stadium.

Patriots vs. Dolphins odds

Spread: Dolphins -3.5

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Point total: 46.5

Moneyline: Dolphins -180, Patriots +155

Patriots vs. Dolphins picks

Pick against the spread: Dolphins -3.5

Full disclosure, it never feels right to pick a rookie head coach against Bill Belichick. It usually doesn't end well. But this year just feels different.

The Patriots' "streamlined" offense was abysmal for most of camp and preseason. The last time we saw Jones and Co. in action, they failed to get anything going against the Las Vegas Raiders' reserves. There's always chance they surprise us with something we didn't see during the summer, but it's difficult to have any confidence in that side of the ball heading into Week 1.

While New England's defense has looked solid, it faces a tough task in limiting the duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. It'll have to do so without All-Pro cornerback J.C. Jackson, who left the Patriots for the Los Angeles Chargers in free agency.

As long as Tagovailoa is competent, the Dolphins can make a serious statement in the season opener with their offensive firepower.

Over/under: Under 46.5

If you believe the Patriots' offensive struggles could carry into the regular season, and you aren't sold on Tua Tagovailoa as the Dolphins' franchise quarterback, the under should be a no-brainer. We've seen nothing from New England's offense to suggest it could explode on Sunday and Tagovailoa hasn't exactly earned a reputation as a gunslinger yet at the NFL level. All signs point toward a relatively low-scoring affair.

Score prediction: 23-17, Dolphins

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