Tom E. Curran and Phil Perry are here to break down Sunday’s Week 2 matchup between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks in this week’s “Total Insight”. The guys share their prop bet picks for everything from Jacoby Brissett’s total passing yards to New England’s sack total on defense, as well as share their final score predictions.
Not many folks expected the Patriots to be 1-0 entering their home opener against the Seahawks on Sunday. Even fewer will expect them to emerge 2-0 after Week 2. But there's some reason for optimism in New England after last week's upset of the Bengals.
How might the Patriots replicate their Week 1 success this Sunday? We'll tackle that topic and more in the latest Mailbag...
@BensGotTweets: The Patriots averaged 6.7 offensive linemen and tight ends per play on Sunday. A strategy to obviously help cover up protection issues. Do you see this trend continuing throughout the season?
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They'll continue to operate in that fashion as long as it works. It establishes the kind of tone they want to set as a run-first team. With those looks -- especially their 13 personnel packages with two tight ends and an extra offensive lineman -- they're stating their intentions to run, and they showed against the Bengals they could run it anyway. There's an element of overwhelming someone physically, with no deception as to what their plans are, that can wear on an opponent mentally over time.
The numbers would suggest, at least through Week 1, that those heavier formations were effective. They led the league, by far, with those types of "13" attempts. They ran 12 times in those packages (the next-closest team was Buffalo with five), picking up 56 yards (4.7 yards per attempt) and three first downs. Half of those attempts generated a positive EPA per play figure, per Sports Info Solutions.
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Going with one tight end and one extra lineman -- it was always rookie Caedan Wallace last week -- generated 17 yards on five rushing attempts but a 60 percent positive EPA per play figure. (For reference, the fifth-most efficient rushing offense in Week 1, regardless of personnel package, was Indy with a positive EPA rate of 59.1 percent.)
Those heavier sets aren't really to help in pass protection, other than by running the ball you're protecting your quarterback by not throwing it. The Patriots passed just once with an extra offensive lineman on the field the other day, completing it for six yards.
@proudblackmatt: With (Rhamondre) Stevenson having 118 yards after contact does that necessarily mean the run blocking was bad?
It does not, and I'm glad you brought it up.
Unblocked run defenders are going to happen. As a team, though, you have to prioritize who you're going to handle. Oftentimes the defensive backs get ignored by bigger bodies, assuming that a running back like Rhamondre Stevenson (227 pounds) can power through a corner who may be 30 pounds lighter and not want to tackle.
On plays like the runs we saw at the end of Sunday's game, then, even though Stevenson met a tackler at or near the line of scrimmage, that doesn't mean the line didn't do its job. The line actually did its job well in those moments, putting their back in an advantageous position to break a tackle and create a chunk gain.
@Pullosfan: Will (DeMario) Douglas (Hunter) Henry & (Austin) Hooper have bigger roles this week, because of Seattle’s starting CB’s?
I think it's possible that the Patriots will work the middle of the field through the air, for a few different reasons.
First, yes, you might want to steer clear of Tariq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon. Those corners are great athletes and ballhawks and there aren't many matchups the Patriots should like against that pairing. Second, they should want to pepper the middle of the field anyway because that could be the area vacated by linebackers if and when the Patriots turn to their play-action passing game.
Those middle-of-the-field pass-catchers might have "bigger" roles. But I'm still not sure they'll be objectively "big."
Passing against the Seattle secondary -- and trying to pass-protect against a pass-rush group that features defensive tackle Leonard Williams and edge-defender Boye Mafe (nine pressures in Week 1) -- doesn't feel like a winning proposition.
We'll get into this in this week's preview, but it seems like trying to attack Seattle's run defense -- which was among the worst in football last season but has improved under a new coaching staff and with a couple of additions on the interior of their defensive line -- is their best bet.
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@Yapybara: Which WRs are best at blocking? Would (Kayshon) Boutte be an upgrade over (K.J.) Osborn or Pop (Douglas) in the run game?
Based on what we saw in Week 1, I don't think it's out of line to say that Ja'Lynn Polk is already their best player in that regard. His size and willingness to mix it up makes him a legitimate option to dig out safeties and help create room for Stevenson or Antonio Gibson.
I think K.J. Osborn has been OK in that regard, too, and you can see they used him tight to the formation in order to get him on a defensive back at times in Cincinnati.
I'm not sure that group of wideouts is going to see much in the way of shakeup moving forward. Kayshon Boutte isn't exactly a big body and hasn't been a standout blocker in his time in Foxboro.
@qualitysmoke: Running hills, multiple padded practices, tackling to the ground, few days off, a hard camp. Do you think (Jerod) Mayo would have had the player buy in, outside NE or would he have been another (Belichick) tree failure, like (McDaniels), Patricia, Judge where that approach didn’t take?
I think Mayo's experience in New England as an assistant helped him get buy-in from players from the jump, no doubt about it. I also think his experience as a former player is critical. Similar to Dan Campbell in Detroit.
Those guys know camp can be a miserable experience. If they can explain along the way, as they're asking players to do hard things, why they're doing it? That helps, too.
@RTyrannis: How much longer for the (Chukwuma Okorafor) experiment? Do you see him going back to RT or to the bench as a reserve?
Based on what we've seen at practice, the move has been made. Vederian Lowe is the top left tackle.
@MichaelDiCo95: Should the Patriots look to add a blocking TE or another RB to the roster? Do you see any RB elevations from the PS?
I wouldn't make any kind of move at running back until it becomes necessary.
Antonio Gibson has the size and the ability to run between the tackles. I thought he looked good the other day, though he ran for just 18 yards on seven carries. He picked up 20 yards after contact and looked quick. They're OK there. As long as both are healthy, he and Rhamondre Stevenson should get the backfield work.
As far as blocking tight ends go, it'd be nice for the Patriots to have a blocker who can catch it occasionally if called upon. But both Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper looked OK as people-movers last week. Additionally, blocking tight ends are harder and harder to find these days. They don't really exist in the college game the way they used to so there aren't many who make their way to the pros.
@brett8055: Which aspects of Sunday's game do you feel are the most repeatable over the course of the season?
I think plenty is repeatable. The ability to take care of the football. The ability to turn the ball over defensively. The ability to play well on special teams. The ability to run the football, especially when they decide to overwhelm opponents with physicality.
Unfortunately for them, I think some of the production -- or lack thereof -- they had in the passing game in Week 1 will also be repeated over time. Until they become more capable as a pass-protection unit... Until they get another playmaker or two... offensively they're going to have a hard time being consistently effective through the air.
@LereimTrygve: Do you anticipate any other trades from the Patriots?
Probably too early to say. Might have to get closer to the deadline before teams start identifying themselves as buyers or sellers. But perhaps there's a piece worth dealing for, particularly on the offensive line, later in the season if they feel they want to play their rookie quarterback and want to get another piece to help protect him.
@ChrisPlainville: Health being #1 6-7 wins? What do you say.
Maybe? I had them as a five-win team right before the season. When the schedule came out, I thought they'd win six. Give 'em one more after winning a game no one thought they'd win? Why not?
