What will it take for the Patriots to trade down from No. 3 and pass on one of the top three quarterbacks in the 2024 NFL Draft?
A big, big booty. Massive. Historic.
The mindset in Foxboro is the package has to be bigger than what San Francisco put together in 2021 to go up from No. 12 to No. 3 in its trade with Miami. In that deal, the 49ers sent No. 12, a 2022 third-rounder and first-round picks in 2022 and 2023 to Miami for the privilege of selecting Trey Lance.
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Where do the Patriots get off asking for more? Well, the 2021 quarterback class was far more suspect than this one. As noted, the Niners took Lance, who played at North Dakota State and had one year of FCS subdivision football under his belt. Zach Wilson, propped up by a limited schedule at BYU thanks to COVID, was the No. 2 pick.
The group of three who could be on the board at No. 3 this year – Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy – features a Heisman Trophy winner, a national championship winner and a guy (Maye) who fills out the franchise quarterback suit beautifully.
There aren't ZERO questions about the kids up top. But there are a lot fewer than there were three years ago.
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But getting New England to pass on selecting a QB at No. 3 when their depth chart’s populated by Jacoby Brissett, Bailey Zappe and Nathan Rourke will take an offer New England cannot refuse. You’d be convincing the team to pass on taking a (purportedly) can’t-miss prospect at the most important position in professional sports. At a time when interest in the team is at a 31-year ebb.
Four first-rounders over the next three seasons? With that, you can take wideouts, offensive tackles another corner, maybe an edge guy. Or, with that kind of currency, you could buy your way into the top-five next year or the year after.
Playing the long game most definitely has appeal. But delayed gratification isn’t something the world’s big on in 2024. And there’s a chance the long game ends with them regretting forever passing on Maye as he hoists Lombardis.
But that’s why the Patriots pay Eliot Wolf the big bucks to make these decisions as GM.
What’s that? Not the GM yet? De facto GM? Making the franchise's biggest decisions in 30 years? OK. Noted. Gulp.
Who’s thirsty enough to make the Godfather offer? The most likely candidate is Minnesota (as we’ve discussed). They have the 11th and 23th overall picks and need a Kirk Cousins replacement ASAFP, especially since they currently have Sam Darnold (cautionary tale as No. 3 pick in 2018) as the QB on a team with elite wideout Justin Jefferson.
In addition to Minny, the Broncos (sitting at No. 12), Raiders (No. 13) and Giants (No. 6) are QB-needy teams that could be interested in coming up.
The Patriots hosted Maye for a visit Friday. Daniels is in this week and McCarthy the following week, according to Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer. So New England will come out of next week having envisioned what the next four years (at least) would look like with all of them running its offense.
And unless any of those three throw up on their shoes (unlikely given the polish and/or accomplishments of each), the vision will likely be positive.
Combine that with their levels of potential and the Patriots’ need at the spot, you understand why it will take a ton to move them off their spot.
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But there are more than two weeks left to dislodge New England. And signals from Minnesota keep coming in loud and clear they’re going to dislodge someone, as evidenced by former Vikings GM Rick Spielman’s statement that his former team “will” overpay to get up to draft J.J. McCarthy.
“They’re going to have to give [picks 11 and 23] and their 2025 first, plus some more draft capital,” Spielman said. “I think J.J. will be a good pro, but Minnesota will overpay to get him. At this point, they don’t have a choice.”
Arizona, picking behind the Patriots at No. 4, is generally viewed as the most likely trade partner for teams in quarterback need, since the Bears, Commanders and Patriots are all expected to go quarterback.
But here’s where the Patriots can play poker.
If the Vikings are OK with Daniels, Maye or McCarthy (presuming Caleb Williams goes No. 1 to Chicago) there’s no reason for them to go to No. 3. Just trade with the Cardinals, who have Kyler Murray in place.
But if Minny wants McCarthy specifically, the Patriots can saber-rattle that they are going to take him and not Maye (or Daniels if Washington passes on him).
Or, with a host of teams in the market for quarterback, the Patriots could trade down from No. 3 with, say, Denver, then – having cleaned out the Broncos – trade back up to No. 4 by swinging a deal with Arizona and leapfrogging Minnesota to take the final quarterback.
Against this backdrop is the steady trickle of doubt being cast upon Maye.
Analyst Merril Hoge, a former player best known for his time on ESPN’s NFL Matchup, demolished Maye in a recent interview.
“Drake Maye is the kind of player that will get you fired. Especially if you draft him in the top five or top three, he’s going to get you fired,” said Hoge. “I studied him for two years. ... I watched every one of his games last year. ... His last game against [North Carolina State] was probably the most embarrassing display I’ve seen from a guy who is supposed to be an elite franchise quarterback. ... He’s erratic. He’s everywhere.”
Hoge, who’s also blistered Caleb Williams in this year’s draft process, makes a good point. The NC State game at the end of the season was horrific. And North Carolina did go from a 6-0 start to a final record of 7-4 with Maye at the controls.
Maye’s 2023 backslide has been attributed to an offensive coordinator change, suspect protection and lack of polish wideout. Repeatedly, we’ve been told to toss out Maye’s 2023 season and look at how good he was in ’22. Which is a little like asking folks to toss out Mac Jones’ 2023 season and look at 2021. The fact is, both count.
The other fact is, the staggering inability of GMs, scouts, coaches and analysts to project players any better than the Average Joe will never not be amusing to me.
Get a load of this 2021 article in which the merits of Zach Wilson over Trevor Lawrence are freely debated.
So it’s sweaty palm time. There are no sure things among the quarterbacks (even if they are better than usual). And there’s no guarantee the picks you collect if you trade down are going to turn into gold, either. The Patriots are juggling chainsaws.
If they do it perfectly, they’ll win admiration. Less than perfect? It’s gonna get messy.