Patriots-Seahawks preview: Old-school matchup will be won with defense

FOXBORO -- What the Bengals offense experienced in Week 1 was a wave of Patriots tacklers smothering them into submission. 

That was by design. You may catch the football on us, DeMarcus Covington's defense seemed to say, but you won't be getting far after the fact. The Patriots had the third-best yards-after-catch figure allowed in the NFL's season-opening week (3.4 yards) with a rally-to-the-ball mindset that featured big hits from players across their defense.

As much as their willingness to use an extra offensive lineman and run the football defined what head coach Jerod Mayo wants the Patriots to be -- a team that wins with physicality and fundamentals -- on the other side of the ball, New England's tackling did the same. Pro Football Focus ranked the Patriots as the second-best tackling group in Week 1 behind only the Lions. 

Against the Seahawks, who feature a talented group of receivers and a quick-trigger quarterback in Geno Smith (according to Next Gen Stats, he averaged his third-quickest time to throw since 2019 in Week 1), tackling will be paramount for the Patriots yet again.

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"I think (against the Bengals) you saw aggressive play, you saw physical play, physical tackling, knocking guys back, winning the line of scrimmage," Covington said this week. "You saw good fundamentals. You saw us taking the ball away. When you turn on the tape, you want to see that every single week."

It started early with the hitting. Jahlani Tavai and Ja'Whaun Bentley at the linebacker level closed on ball-carriers quickly. Keion White was a force. Jabrill Peppers and Kyle Dugger always embody a physical style of play. And some of the team's smaller players weren't left out of the mix.

Marcus Jones helped establish a tone with two third-down tackles that helped force punts, and the biggest hit of the day was a kamikaze-style collision from Jonathan Jones that forced a turnover on downs in the third quarter. 

"It don't matter about the size of the dog, right?" Covington said of his more undersized defensive backs. "It's really about the heart of the player. They're not scared of anything or anybody. And they do it in practice."

"I've always prided myself on tackling," said Marcus Jones, listed at 5-foot-8, 188 pounds. "Most of the time, whenever you're small out there, people try to see if you can't make tackles. But I appreciate being part of this organization, just based on the fact that we take pride in making plays and tackling. We do it a lot in season and in practice. It helps out a lot."

In a matchup between two of the best defenses in Week 1, between the two 30-something head coaches who've spent their careers on the defensive side of the ball, the Patriots may hope that whichever defense shines brightest -- and tackles best -- on Sunday at Gillette Stadium will come away with a second win in as many weeks. While Mayo's team excelled in that area to start the season, Mike Macdonald's Seahawks missed 11 tackles in their win over Denver.

Let's a little dig deeper into the matchups that will determine how Week 2 plays out for New England...

Matchup that will determine the outcome

Geno Smith vs. DeMarcus Covington

The Seahawks look like they'll be without Kenneth Walker III, who's doubtful with an oblique injury. They look like they'll be onto their third right tackle, Stone Forsythe, because of an injury to George Fant. This game will come down to whether or not Geno Smith can handle DeMarcus Covington's changing coverages and unexpected pressure packages. 

Based on recent history, those situations should be dominated by Covington's unit, whose goal defensively is to generate "controlled chaos" to put quarterbacks in a blender.

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Last season, Smith had the 10th-most turnover-worthy plays when under pressure, and he ranked 28th in the league in yards per attempt when pressured. Last week, in 11 pressured dropbacks, he completed 44 percent of his passes and had a quarterback rating of 64.8.

I'd anticipate Keion White to be moved all along the defensive front, as he was a week ago against Cincinnati, and when he gets an opportunity to rush off the right edge he'll turn in a game-changing play or two.

Matchup that will surprise you

Patriots screen game vs. Seahawks defense

The reason Macdonald was such a highly-coveted head-coaching candidate this past offseason was because he was the mastermind behind the shifts in philosophy in Baltimore that yielded the best defense in football. 

They went from a man-to-man-heavy scheme that blitzed more than any team in football under Wink Martindale to a shape-shifting defense that used a multitude of coverages and deception -- not an overwhelming number of rushers -- to generate pressure.

In Macdonald's second season with the Ravens, he'd built an elite-across-the-board unit that ranked first in points allowed per game, second in EPA per play and sixth in success rate. They were third in yards per coverage snap against play-action passes, sixth in quarterback pressures, and they were first in Sports Info Solutions' "points saved" metric against posts, go routes, fade and double-move deep shots.

One area where the Ravens weren't special? Defending screens. In 2023, they were 15th in quarterback rating and EPA per play allowed when defending screens. The Patriots, meanwhile, have been very open about wanting screens to be a significant part of their offense. Running back JaMycal Hasty told reporters during training camp that offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt has relayed to players that he wants them to be "the best screen team in the league."

That type of play was really not part of their plan against the Bengals in Week 1 (Jacoby Brissett threw just one and the Patriots lost three yards). But with capable receivers at the running back position in Rhamondre Stevenson, Antonio Gibson and Hasty -- and against a Macdonald scheme that last year in Baltimore proved to be top-tier against just about every other concept -- the Patriots could turn to their screen game to try to generate offense on Sunday.

Matchup that will take years off your life

Boye Mafe vs. Vederian Lowe

NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah, former scout for the Ravens, Eagles and Browns, is a fan of the personnel playing on the defensive side in Seattle. But third-year pass-rusher Boye Mafe -- a second-round pick out of Minnesota in 2022 -- ranks right at the top of the list.

"I'd like to buy all of the Boye Mafe stock that's available," Jeremiah posted Monday on Twitter/X. "He's on the cusp of being a superstar. He plays at a different speed, and he's starting to learn how to rush the passer."

Mafe was one of the best athletes to enter the league as a rookie two years ago. At 6-foot-4, 261 pounds, he clocked a 4.53-second 40 time (98th percentile among defensive ends over the last two decades), to go along with a 38-inch vertical (91st percentile) and a 10-foot-5 broad jump (92nd percentile). It looked like he began to tap into those gifts last week, generating a whopping nine pressures in his team's win over the Broncos.

After Bo Nix spun away from Devon Witherspoon coming on the slot blitz, Boye Mafe shows off his elite closing speed at 260 pounds running the quarterback down for a sack along the sideline. #Seahawks pic.twitter.com/RiZG3Eku3o

— Corbin K. Smith (@CorbinSmithNFL) September 10, 2024

Lowe will have an advantage over Mafe when it comes to length. His 35.5-inch arms (versus Mafe's 32.5-inch arms) could help the expected starting left tackle for the Patriots -- who subbed in for Chukwuma Okorafor in the first quarter of Week 1 -- to get an initial punch in pass-protection. Lowe has an ability to use what offensive line coach Scott Peters calls a "zero strike," punching around the collar of an on-coming rusher to jolt the opponent backward, and he used it effectively at times in one-on-one situations in training camp. 

But Mafe's combination of size and speed off the edge could make him a handful for any tackle, and with the Patriots passing game looking like it'll need more time than it had a week ago (over 40 percent of dropbacks resulted in pressure for Brissett), he may not allow for that to happen.

Doesn't mean the Patriots can't win. But doesn't feel like this will be the week where their passing game gets going.

Prediction: Patriots 13, Seahawks 12