Patriots vs. Jaguars preview: Drake Maye can exploit this matchup

The Patriots know they're treading shaky ground. 

They're 1-5. They've lost five straight. They're near the bottom of the league in significant offensive and defensive statistical categories, including points scored (13.8, 31st), EPA per play (-0.18, 30th), yards per pass (4.1, 31st), yards allowed (358.8, 25th), third-down success rate allowed (44.7 percent, 26th) and dropback success rate allowed (49.6, 26th).

It's ugly. 

And on top of it, they're now receiving questions about whether or not they've allowed complacency to creep into the locker room during what has been widely considered a rebuilding year.

Players and coaches alike, led by head coach Jerod Mayo, have acknowledged that they are amidst a long-term process to get the team back to contention. While understanding the reality of the situation is in some respects healthy for all involved, how do players combat a lethargic wait-till-next-year (or the year after) approach during what Mayo referred to as a "reset" in London on Friday?

"Personally, I'm trying to step into that leadership role and telling guys put pressure on yourself," Kendrick Bourne said this week. "When you run routes, how did that look? How did that feel? Did you give your best effort? Did you try your hardest? I think that's the mindset we have to have. 

"The coach can tell you all you want. But if you don't tell yourself then we're never going to get anywhere. We're going to stay in the same boat at 1-5 every year. Personally, I look at myself in the mirror. I hate when I get locked up. I hate when I drop a ball... The coaches do a great job, but it's personal. It has to be personal. I think we just need to do a better job of doing that overall."

What Mayo and other Patriots decision-makers will want to eventually take hold is a culture that is winning-obsessed. Emerging victorious on any kind of consistent basis isn't the expectation this year, nor should it be given the state of the roster and the foundation-laying stage in which the organization finds itself.

But there's a fine line between managed expectations and apathy. If losing becomes acceptable, that can be a difficult standard to shake.

Jonathan Jones explained this week that personal pride should stave off that kind of player perspective in Foxboro.

"I think every guy is a professional," Jones said. "It's our job and our livelihood. You're [judged] on what you do week in and week out as an individual. If nothing else, you take pride in yourself as a professional and go out there and give it your all."

🔊 Patriots Talk Podcast: Despite the rebuild, are Patriots maintaining urgency in 2024? | Listen & Subscribe | Watch on YouTube

It's not always easy, Bourne acknowledged, to maintain that psychological edge when the results are lacking. Especially over a long stretch of time.

"It is tough," he said. "It's the adversity. It's like, 'OK, this again?' When we're in the game and we go down by 14 points it's like, 'OK, here we go again. It is hard. But that's that decision. Personally, I'm not going to look at the scoreboard. I'm going to keep playing. Then we find ourselves coming into halftime only down seven with the ball. 

"It changes fast. If we keep falling into, 'Here we go again,' it's gonna be, 'Here we go again.' We have to make the personal decision. We're just going to play and see where we're at at the end. If we fall into feeling sorry for ourselves, playing victim, it's going to be the same result. It has to be a mindset change."

Playing against the one-win Jaguars represents as good an opportunity for a mindset change.

"We need it," Jones said. "I think both teams kind of need it. It's just one of those games to get some momentum going, just prove to ourselves that we can win, go out there and put some consistent plays together, some consistent drives, consistent quarters and come out with a win."

Here are the matchups that will determine whether or not the Patriots will find what they're looking for at Wembley Stadium on Sunday...

Matchup that will determine the outcome

Drake Maye vs. Ryan Nielsen

Nielsen was the defensive coordinator for the Falcons last year, leading a group that finished fifth in the NFL in success rate allowed and 12th in EPA per play allowed. Not bad for a team that featured 37-year-old Calais Campbell as its top pass-rusher.

This year, in the same role for the Jaguars, Nielsen has had a much tougher go. His defense is last in the NFL in EPA per play and dropback EPA. It's also 29th in yards per pass attempt allowed, 27th in dropback success rate, and 25th in third-down defense. Only two teams pressure opposing quarterbacks less frequently than Jacksonville (26.9 percent pressure rate).

Should mean a nice little day for Drake Maye, who averaged 7.4 yards per pass against Houston's highly-ranked defense in Week 6. One matchup he might like in particular would be DeMario Douglas going against whichever Jaguars defensive back who happens to be in his area. Per NextGen Stats, Douglas has the sixth-most slot yards in the NFL this year, and the Jags are allowing a passer rating of 128.3 when slot receivers are targeted against them. 

"Pop, you can't guard him in a phone booth," Maye said this week. "He's tough to guard in man coverage, and he's got a knack for finding zones. So, he's a great guy to have out there and makes my job a little easier. Any time you see a man matchup, Pop is somebody that you want to go to."

Matchup that could surprise you

Christian Gonzalez vs. Brian Thomas Jr.

While Christian Gonzalez is in the middle of an impressive second season, he was challenged by Stefon Diggs in Week 6, allowing four catches on five targets for 39 yards and a touchdown. His matchup this week isn't nearly as accomplished as Diggs, but he's talented in his own right. 

Don't be stunned if rookie first-rounder Brian Thomas Jr. finds some production against Gonzalez in London. He leads rookie receivers in receiving yards (424) and deep receiving yards on targets that travel at least 20 yards beyond the line of scrimmage (225), per NGS.

While Thomas isn't the savvy route-runner Diggs is, and while he's had serious drop issues this season (eight on the year), he's a true height-weight-speed problem, measuring in at 6-foot-3, 209 pounds and with a 4.33-second 40 at this year's combine. 

The Jags are 23rd in points scored this season (18.8), but they've shown ability to move the football -- largely due to the connection Thomas and Trevor Lawrence have established in their first year together. They're seventh in the league in dropback success rate this season.

Matchup that will take years off your life

Jaguars edge defenders vs. Patriots offensive tackles

This is going to be a near-weekly staple for the Patriots. The scariest matchup will be whichever one provides the greatest threat to Maye's well-being. This week, as was the case last week, it's the edges of the pocket that could be problematic for New England's offense.

New England remains the worst team in football when it comes to pressure rate allowed (48.1 percent), and they'll have changes at the tackle position. With Vederian Lowe (ankle) ruled out, it could be Demontrey Jacobs manning that spot after playing right tackle in recent weeks. Mike Onwenu would then likely kick outside to right tackle, with rookie Layden Robinson coming off the bench and starting at right guard. 

Not ideal against Jags pass-rushers Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker. Per NGS, Hines-Allen (23 pressures) and Walker (22) make up one of only six pass-rushing duos in the NFL with at least 20 pressures each. Though as a team the Jags don't consistently bother quarterbacks, they have two potential game-wreckers on the outside.

It'll be up to offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt to help Onwenu and Jacobs in obvious passing situations with quick passes, double-teams or chips at the line of scrimmage. Maye ranked 20th in the league in Week 6 with 12 quick pass attempts that came within 2.5 seconds of the snap of the ball. 

It would also be helpful to the Patriots, and Maye in particular after he absorbed eight hits in Week 7, if they could generate some production in the running game. That went out the window to a degree when the Patriots found themselves in a quick 14-0 hole against the Texans. There should be more room to run Sunday as the Jags are 23rd in the NFL in rush EPA per play allowed this season.

Prediction: Patriots 27, Jaguars 23