Phil Perry's very early Patriots 53-man roster projection

A question popped up on this week's "Next Pats" podcast that got me thinking: Who could end up as the surprise cuts on this year's 53-man roster now that the draft is in our collective rearview?

My immediate reaction was this: I'm not sure there are going to be many surprises.

I pointed out ahead of Day 2 of the draft that the Patriots already had a great deal of their 53-man roster spots spoken for, in all likelihood, so a trade up (or two) to consolidate draft picks and land better players made sense. They ended up trading once to move into the top part of the second round to select defensive tackle Christian Barmore.

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But because of their whirlwind spending spree in free agency, they didn't have many obvious holes. If we know who is going to be playing where, and if we can tell, for the most part, who's going to be on the team based on the amount of money they were just given in free agency, cutting down to 53 players shouldn't be all that difficult, right? No major surprises, right? 

Let's dig in to find out.

QB (3): Cam Newton, Mac Jones, Jarrett Stidham

Fairly straightforward here. The Patriots liked to go with two quarterbacks back in the days when they knew Tom Brady was going to be with them and starting every game. Little more uncertainty here so three makes sense.

I still think there's a chance for some late-offseason shakeup -- does Jimmy Garoppolo shake free from San Francisco? How does the dynamic between Newton and Jones play out? Will Newton want an opportunity to start elsewhere if Jones wins the job? -- but this group feels like the safe choice for now.

RB (5): Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, JJ Taylor, James White, Brandon Bolden

No Sony Michel in this insanely-early version of the 53-man roster. If Stevenson shows he can play well enough to handle some of the between-the-tackles workload as a rookie, that could put Michel's job in peril. The Georgia product is not a significant factor in the passing game or on special teams. Stevenson comes billed as someone who can catch, pass-protect and play on "teams."

Because Harris is going to be the top option when healthy, the No. 2 slot might go to the player who can do more. That could be Stevenson. Bolden is here as a special-teamer. Taylor is here as a sub back reserve. There really are two positions in the running back room, and it might behoove the Patriots to have an understudy for White ready to go in case of emergency. Patriots running backs coach Ivan Fears complimented Taylor at every opportunity last season, comparing him to Dion Lewis.

WR (6): Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, Jakobi Meyers, N'Keal Harry, Matthew Slater, Gunner Olszewski

N'Keal Harry makes this list, perhaps surprisingly for some. But keeping him just may be the best route for the Patriots to take with him. If they can't get anything back for Harry in a trade, even if he's not slated to be a top-three receiver, it might be worth holding onto him to see if he can develop into a serviceable player. And if the Patriots want to use Agholor in a Julian Edelman-type of role as an inside-out threat, the team won't have an obvious outside-the-numbers options. Maybe that's Harry if he shows in camp that he's improved since Year 2.

There's still time for the Patriots to make a move here this offseason and find an addition to shake up the depth chart here. If the Patriots would rather keep Michel for depth purposes -- they look like a power-running team that would like to cycle through backs if possible -- then maybe that would mean going with one less receiver, which could mean parting ways with Harry.

TE (4): Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry, Dalton Keene, Jakob Johnson

Not enough bodies? Maybe. One is a fullback and essentially a position unto himself. (Fullbacks meet with tight ends on a daily basis in New England.) If this is going to be an offense that is centered around its tight ends, then it'd make sense to carry a little extra tight end depth.

But signing two vets for huge money isn't a great indication that the Patriots are holding out much hope for Keene or Devin Asiasi. Both have some promise athletically and were projected to be versatile players prior to arriving in Foxboro. Maybe it'd make sense to hold onto Asiasi if he's a player the Patriots felt they couldn't get through waivers -- releasing a linebacker (more on that later) might be the cost of that kind of decision -- but for now it's hard to envision both of last year's rookies having real roles on the 53-man roster.

OL (8): Isaiah Wynn, Mike Onwenu, David Andrews, Shaq Mason, Trent Brown, Ted Karras, Justin Herron, William Sherman

This was a fairly easy group to assemble. The five starters are pretty clear-cut choices. After that there's a lot of versatility among the backups with Karras able to play all three interior spots, Herron able to play tackle and guard, and Sherman potentially able to play tackle and guard.

Sherman is built a bit like Wynn and played tackle at Colorado the last three years, but he's open to a move inside and even spent time practicing at center this offseason. 

ST (3): Nick Folk, Joe Cardona, Jake Bailey

No rookie challengers to Nick Folk this offseason, but he'll have to contend with 2016 second-round pick Roberto Aguayo. Now on his fifth team since entering the league, Aguayo is 26 years old and will have to show out in camp to overtake the steady Folk. 

OLB (4): Kyle Van Noy, Matt Judon, Chase Winovich, Ronnie Perkins

With the way Bill Belichick runs his defense, linebackers are critical. And there are a bunch of 'em in this outside linebacker group. Judon was the big-ticket free-agent signing, and Van Noy looks like he could slide right back into the starting role he held when he was last in New England. Between the two of them, they could leave little in the way of snaps for anyone else. They're capable of being three-down players.

Both Winovich and Perkins look like good pass-rush specialist options at the moment and could play alongside their veteran teammates in obvious passing situations.

ILB (5): Dont'a Hightower, Josh Uche, Anfernee Jennings, Ja'Whaun Bentley, Raekwon McMillan

Last offseason we projected Uche, an uber athlete with the ability to play both on the end of the line of scrimmage and off, could handle a Jamie Collins-style role. Looks like that spot is available to him this year with Dont'a Hightower back in the mix and the edge positions spoken for. Collins was at his best in space, creeping up to the line of scrimmage as a blitzer, and giving tackles fits with his athleticism on the edge. Uche could do all of those things while Hightower directs traffic from the middle.

Raekwon McMillan is an interesting player, who could be competing with Jennings and Bentley for two spots, but his special-teams value, Bentley's experience in the middle of Belichick's defense, and Jennings' promise as a versatile second-year player from a blue-chip program make them all worth of 53-man spots at the moment.

DL (5): Davon Godchaux, Deatrich Wise, Lawrence Guy, Henry Anderson, Christian Barmore

Another unit here with more bodies than the Patriots may need. Will be interesting to see how this group shakes out because it's not as though there are oodles of special-teams snaps being eaten up here. But Guy will return to be a crucial piece for the interior of the Patriots defensive line.

Anderson and Godchaux, underrated early-down run-stuffers, should have quick roles as well. Wise has had unique responsibilities as a pass-rushing defensive end in recent years as a bit of an odd scheme fit, but the Patriots brought him back in free agency for a reason. And Barmore could slide in as the new Adam Butler. There are roles there for all of them.

Keeping Byron Cowart, though, who started alongside Guy last year, may be tough to figure out with this unit constructed as it is.

S (4): Adrian Phillips, Devin McCourty, Kyle Dugger, Cody Davis

No surprises here. The Patriots have two more-than-capable box safeties in this group with Dugger and Phillips, which should allow them to deploy their "big nickel" personnel if they so choose.

Having McCourty as the lone obvious free safety of the group might be a concern depth-wise, but corner Jonathan Jones could slide back there if the situation calls for it. 

CB (6): Jonathan Jones, JC Jackson, Stephon Gilmore, Justin Bethel, Myles Bryant, Jalen Mills

After periods of uncertainty this offseason, it looks like both Jackson and Gilmore will be back with the Patriots. Can't rule out some kind of move here, but it'd make sense for Belichick -- who clearly wants to field an extremely competitive team in 2021 -- to hold onto both. His defensive scheme requires strong man-to-man corners on the outside, and if the Patriots were to lose either of their top-two guys, life would get a lot more difficult for the Patriots on that side of the ball.

Joejuan Williams was a tough leave here as a second-round pick in 2019, but he saw just 172 snaps last season whereas Bryant, perhaps a surprise add here, played almost as many (156) as a rookie and saw his role grow after not playing at all through the first seven weeks of the season. Adding a versatile defensive back with good size like Mills this offseason could make it tough for Williams to carve himself a role this summer.