Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo spoke about a renewed sense of energy at practice this week after Drake Maye was named starting quarterback
FOXBORO -- It'd be easy to say, from afar, this isn't the right decision for the Patriots.
Playing Drake Maye this week means playing him against one of the league's most stingy defenses and hard-to-handle pass-rush units. No team pressures quarterbacks more frequently than the Texans (42 percent), and only four have a better sack rate (8.6 percent). They're third in pass yards allowed per game (154.0) and fourth in pass yards allowed per play (4.8).
Yeah. Not ideal.
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Maye could, there's no doubt, be running for his life. The Patriots have allowed more quarterback pressures than any team in football this season (48.3 percent). Jacoby Brissett absorbed 49 hits over five weeks, and despite being a veteran of nine seasons and having played over 3,600 regular-season snaps, looked at times shaken by the number of times defenders invaded his space in the pocket. His pass protectors allowed a league-high 13.5 percent unblocked pressure rate, per NextGen Stats.
But the Patriots' passing game has been dysfunctional. They've looked for answers at receiver, with Tyquan Thornton and K.J. Osborn looking like afterthoughts in favor of younger players like Ja'Lynn Polk and Kayshon Boutte. They've looked for answers on the offensive line, exchanging presumed starter Sidy Sow for recent practice-squad call-up Michael Jordan, and bumping Michael Onwenu inside to guard in order to play newly-acquired tackle Demontrey Jacobs at tackle.
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While the line showed some "progress" in Week 5, per Jerod Mayo, the offense has remained stagnant. They're now the owners of the fifth-worst offensive EPA per play figure in the NFL, and only the Browns average fewer yards per pass play than New England (3.7).
Couple those continued failures with the readiness of a young and talented player just over five months removed from being selected with the No. 3 overall pick in the NFL draft, and the Patriots are where they are.
Is it the perfect scenario? No. But the Patriots would maintain that there are talented defenders waiting to flummox Maye on a weekly basis. There is no soft landing spot, they would argue.
They also have to take into account the buy-in of a locker room that might start to look a little sideways at a group of decision-makers appearing to prioritize the development of one player -- important as he and his development are -- over the well-being of the rest of the team. Particularly as a new regime, led by Mayo and front-office chief Eliot Wolf, it's critical to provide bits of evidence of progress to maintain motivation and belief in the direction of the program.
Rolling with what hasn't been working, for those in it, wasn't an option. Thus they turn to the kid, slap him on the back, and implore him to knock 'em dead. For everyone's benefit.
Let's get to the matchups that'll dictate how Maye's first start transpires...
Matchup that will determine the outcome
Drake Maye vs. DeMeco Ryans
Not only does Maye have the misfortune of facing a pair of excellent edge rushers this week (more on them in a bit), but he also has to contend with Texans coach DeMeco Ryans' changing coverages in obvious passing situations. Ask Josh Allen how that went for him.
The Bills All-Pro went 9-for-30 for 131 yards (4.4 per attempt) and a touchdown, giving him a measly quarterback rating of 56.4. On third down, Allen and the Bills melted. He was pressured six times on 13 dropbacks, completing just three passes (23.1 percent) for 27 yards (2.1 per attempt) and a rating of 39.6.
How did Ryans do it? He mixed things up, while also keeping Allen's legs in check, which may end up forming the foundation of his plan for the athletic Maye.
Ryans used Cover 1 on 43 percent of third-down calls, disguising with zone looks until just before the snap on multiple occasions. He also used Cover 2 on 21 percent of third-down plays, typically showing Cover 1 beforehand. He used an all-out blitz Cover 0 look twice, and Cover 3 zone was deployed on 14 percent of third downs against Allen.
Ryans sent five or more rushers only three times -- a number that could climb against a rookie this weekend -- and on six separate occasions, Ryans deployed a spy to ensure that Allen couldn't run wild.
Allen couldn't get things sorted out, with the Bills converting only three of 14 third downs successfully that day. But he did run for 54 yards on four attempts, and there's a chance Maye can harm Ryans' defensive structure by getting on his horse. Keeping running quarterbacks in check has been an issue for Houston; they're allowing 8.4 yards per quarterback rush this season (second-worst in the NFL).
It'll be incumbent upon Maye to understand what he's seeing when forced to drop back on third down. Easier said than done. The pressure is on Alex Van Pelt as well, not only to help Maye survive those hard-to-convert scenarios, but to keep him out of them altogether by providing a sound early-down plan. Without it, this one could get out of hand quickly.
Matchup that will surprise you
C.J. Stroud vs. Patriots DBs
The Texans have been efficient offensively this season, thanks to C.J. Stroud and his complement of pass-catchers. Despite owning the ninth-worst pressure rate in football (37.0 percent), they're ninth in EPA per pass play. Stroud has been particularly effective against man-to-man coverage, completing 24 of his 31 attempts for 283 yards and three scores, per NextGen Stats. That 9.1 yards per attempt figure against man is third-best in the NFL.
What about Stroud's upcoming duel with Patriots defensive backs will be surprising then? Well, without top wideout Nico Collins, the Texans could be vulnerable when facing man-to-man looks. Collins has been arguably the most productive wideout in football to this point in the season, ranking first in yards per route run (3.6). But he's now on injured reserve with a hamstring issue, which bumps everyone up a spot on the Texans receiving depth chart.
Stefon Diggs can certainly still play. He averages 2.4 yards per route run against man this season, per Sports Info Solutions, which is 31st in the NFL. But if Christian Gonzalez can limit him in those one-on-one situations, does Houston have enough to hurt the Patriots through the air elsewhere?
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Tank Dell, who submitted an outstanding rookie season in 2023 before getting injured, averages just 0.9 yards per route run against man (95th in the NFL) and 1.0 yards per route run against all coverages (103rd). Robert Woods (124th in yards per route run) and Xavier Hutchinson (111th) haven't done much to strike fear into opponents this year, either. Tight end Dalton Schultz is 25th at his position in receiving yards this year (116).
The Patriots play the fifth-highest rate of Cover 1 in the NFL on passing plays (30 percent) so we should expect a healthy dose of Gonzalez on Diggs, with Jonathan Jones and Marcus Jones likely to get the most opportunities against Dell.
Houston isn't accustomed to seeing a ton of man-to-man when fully healthy because there aren't many teams who can match up with both Collins and Diggs. (Houston sees the second-highest rate of Cover 2 this season, behind only Miami with its dynamic receiving duo.) But without their No. 1, the Texans could see a new approach at Gillette Stadium, which means the Patriots have an opportunity to frustrate one of the best young quarterbacks in football Sunday.
Matchup that will take years off your life
Texans edge rushers vs. Patriots tackles
Here's one matchup for the Patriots that should be helped by Maye's insertion into the starting lineup. Pass-rushers against a mobile quarterback typically have to pursue with a little more discipline, meaning for a sack artist like Danielle Hunter -- who's established himself as one of the best at his position by being able to tear up the field with outstanding athleticism -- he may have to ensure he doesn't run past the quarterback and open up an escape lane.
But even if Hunter's pin-your-ears-back-and-go approach is tempered a bit, this is a daunting matchup. Hunter and second-year standout Will Anderson have combined for 42 pressures (21 each) this season, per Pro Football Focus, placing both in the top 10 at their position in that particular category.
Vederian Lowe was impressive in Week 5 against Miami, not allowing a single pressure in 41 pass-blocking reps. But he and Jacobs will be tasked with doing all they can not to allow Hunter and Anderson to ruin Maye's first start. Tall task.
