The New England Patriots fell all the way from No. 2 to No. 4 in the first round order for the 2024 NFL Draft as a result of their 26-23 win over the Denver Broncos in Week 16.
Depending on how the draft order unfolds and when the top QB prospects -- USC's Caleb Williams, UNC's Drake Maye and LSU's Jayden Daniels -- get picked, it could end up being a costly victory for New England.
Here are the updated odds for the Patriots to secure the No. 1 pick, a top-two pick or a top-three pick in the upcoming draft. All data is from Seth Walder of ESPN Analytics.
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Just how much did the Patriots' win over the Denver Broncos in Week 16 hurt their chances of landing a top pick?
Well, entering Week 15 the Patriots had a 82 percent chance at a top-three pick, per Walder. That number dropped to 43 percent after they beat the Broncos. The Patriots had a 58 percent chance to earn a top-two pick before defeating the Broncos, and their current odds are 12 percent. New England's chance to earn the No. 1 overall selection dropped from 10 percent to less than one percent.
These drops are pretty significant, and it shows how large of an impact a single win can have on these projections.
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The Patriots will get at least the No. 4 pick if they lose their remaining two games -- Week 17 at the Buffalo Bills and home to the New York Jets in Week 18. If they win a fifth game, they could slide all the way to No. 7 depending on how other teams around them perform and how the tiebreakers shake out.
The Patriots could also leapfrog the Cardinals and/or Commanders and move up in the draft order to No. 2 or No. 3. But that would require these teams to lose at least one more game, and based on their schedules, this scenario is unlikely.
Commanders: Week 17 vs. 49ers, Week 18 vs. Cowboys
Cardinals: Week 17 at Eagles, Week 18 vs. Seahawks
The most likely spot for the Patriots to land is No. 4 overall, but there are still plenty of ways for them to move up or down in the order over the final two weeks of the regular season.