Albert Breer joins Zolak & Bertrand to set expectations for the Patriots upcoming game vs. the New Orleans Saints.
The Patriots are in quite a predicament. They are a team that wants to play a ball-control, mistake-free brand of football. But they can't control the ball. And they can't stop making mistakes.
They're 28th in the NFL in yards per rushing attempt through four weeks. They're 29th in expected points added per rushing attempt. Only four teams have a turnover differential that's worse than theirs (-5).
They are in no-man's land offensively, and because of the way in which they've been built there are no obvious solutions to fix what ails them.
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Consider how teams have been playing the Patriots. No one sees opposing secondaries play man-to-man coverage at a higher rate, per ESPN Stats and Info. According to Sports Info Solutions, Mac Jones has more attempts against Cover 1 -- man coverage with one safety in the middle of the field -- than any other quarterback.
Why all the man coverage? Teams like how they match up with Patriots receivers. And they should. Jones is 25th in the NFL in yards per attempt against man coverage (6.0 yards). He's 28th in passer rating against man-to-man (56.6).
Matching up one-for-one across the board allows defenses to drop a safety into the box to defend against New England runs. It leaves the Patriots with little separation on the outside in the passing game and little room to run between the tackles.
Now they're hoping to break the cycle against the Saints, one week after Jones was a walking turnover, and their only way out may be for him to be… a playmaker.
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Sounds counterintuitive, doesn’t it? It's not who they drafted Jones to be. It's not how they want him to play. Especially after last week.
But if Jones doesn’t make a few beyond-the-norm types of plays, if he doesn’t fit passes into tight windows, if he doesn’t create out of structure… How do they move the ball?
They don’t have the receivers to beat man coverage consistently. Nor do they have an offensive line that can dominate the line of scrimmage. At least that’s what the evidence would suggest through four weeks.
The reality in which they find themselves is that they need Jones to both a) not turn it over and b) take a few risks that have the potential to produce big returns. Talk about threading the needle. He could very well over-correct after his terrible, horrible, no-good, very-bad day in Dallas and be so focused on a) that he never gets to b). Which should mean another light day for the scoreboard operator.
Let's get to the preview.
Matchup to win the first half
Rhamondre Stevenson vs. Saints defensive front
The Saints will get a lot of attention because of their passing defense and the difficulties it will present the Patriots this weekend. But their run defense is stout. They're 10th in the NFL in success rate allowed to opposing running games (35.3 percent). They're 12th in EPA per rush allowed.
The Patriots have myriad issues along their offensive line, which has limited their run game and their offense overall. But the offensive line was a mess at times a season ago and Rhamondre Stevenson was still able to give them more than what he's given them to this point in the season. He's 34th out of 35 backs with at least 30 attempts in yards after contact per attempt (1.7), per Sports Info Solutions. His hit-at-the-line percentage (40 percent) is not insignificant, but it's not an astronomical figure, either, ranking 21st in the NFL.
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San Francisco 49ers back Christian McCaffrey is hit at the line at the same rate, but his stuff percentage (11.3) is less than half Stevenson's (23.3). Tennessee's Derrick Henry has been hit at the line a whopping 56.2 percent of the time but his stuff percentage sits at just 13.7.
The Patriots need more from the back who is arguably their best offensive player. Getting this week against the Saints could be the difference between the Patriots playing the game on their terms and not.
Matchup that will surprise you
Keion White vs. Trevor Penning
If ever there was a good time to fill in for Matthew Judon, this might be it. Saints left tackle Trevor Penning ranks in the bottom 10 in the league in pressures allowed (13), and he's had issues with length. Titans edge-rusher Arden Key, for example, ate Penning's lunch in Week 1 on his way to an eight-pressure day.
Keion White will help fill in for Judon, Jerod Mayo told us earlier this week, and he has a rare combination of length, athleticism and power. His traits and motor are rare enough that former Patriots edge defender Rob Ninkovich thinks the rookie out of Georgia Tech has the ability to be "super elite."
With more true edge reps available following Judon's injury, White should have the opportunity to be a consistent disruptor. Against Penning, he could change the game.
Matchup that will bring you joy
Hunter Henry vs. Alontae Taylor
The Saints have two corners who rank in the top 10 in passer rating allowed in Marshon Lattimore (57.5) and Paulson Adebo (36.6). Hard to love any of New England's receivers in those matchups (although, of the two, Adebo is the more prone to making a mistake). But Alontae Taylor in the slot is a player Mac Jones and Bill O'Brien may try to target.
Taylor ranks No. 171 out of 176 qualifying corners in Pro Football Focus' man coverage grade. If he finds himself matched up with Hunter Henry, expect Jones to look in that direction -- particularly if the Patriots running game can somehow get going early in the game. Hitting Henry at the second level of the defense on a play-action fake that gets the aggressive Taylor to bite hard? Could be exactly what they need, even if it only happens once, in what looks like it will be a low-scoring affair.
Matchup that will take years off your life
Vederian Lowe vs. Cameron Jordan
Bill Belichick couldn't help himself when running through the Saints roster earlier this week. By the time he got to Cameron Jordan, he had to devote a few sentences to the 13-year veteran who has played in all 196 regular-season games of his career. He's started all but one.
"Jordan is one of the players I have the most respect for in the league," Belichick said. "He’s been a great player for a long time, very durable... This guy shows up every week and plays well. Run. Pass. Situational football. Really smart player. This guy’s a great player."
Jordan -- who ranks in the top 10 in pressures generated through four weeks -- just so happens to align almost exclusively off the offensive right side. That means Patriots right tackle Vederian Lowe, who had his hands full (nine pressures) in Dallas, will get all he can handle once again on Sunday.
Matchup that will determine the outcome
Pete Carmichael Jr. vs. Jerod Mayo and Steve Belichick
The Saints rank 27th in the league in scoring despite having some real weapons to distribute the football to. Receivers Chris Olave and Michael Thomas are no slouches. Alvin Kamara is back and remains a threat.
Yet, even after adding Derek Carr to help stabilize the quarterback position this offseason, New Orleans remains one of the most disappointing offenses in football. They're 26th in dropback success rate and 23rd in EPA per play.
Jerod Mayo and Steve Belichick have to make sure this is not a get-right game for Carr, Pete Carmichael Jr. and their passing game. One area the Patriots may be able to attack to bother Carr? The middle of his offensive line.
Starting left guard Andrus Peat left last weekend's loss to the Bucs with a concussion and is questionable for Sunday. His backup James Hurst popped up on Friday's injury report with an ankle issue. That could press rookie Nick Saldiveri into the lineup, which should be a green light for the Patriots to come up with some exotic pass-rush plans to take advantage of all the moving parts. Games with Christian Barmore, Josh Uche and Deatrich Wise? In play. Blitzes with Ja'Whaun Bentley or even Kyle Dugger crashing from the second level? Have at 'em.
The Patriots are where they are offensively and it's unlikely they get much in the way of game-breaking production from that side of the ball. Especially against a more-than-capable Saints defense. If they're going to buy themselves some time to save their season -- taking a winnable game at home after the worst loss of the Belichick Era -- it's going to have to be because of a few big plays on this side of the ball.
The question is whether or not the Patriots get enough of them with their two best players on that side of the ball -- Judon and Christian Gonzalez -- now out indefinitely.
