FOXBORO -- It was the end of the second quarter and the Patriots were already ahead of the Jets, 21-3. Who knows if they thought they'd been afforded enough breathing room to tinker at that point, but for a moment it looked like that was exactly what they were doing.
On a third-and-2 play, the Patriots had their 11-personnel on the field with James White and three receivers. Tom Brady was under center. They handed off to White for one yard.
Little odd.
That kind of carry was a relative rarity for White this season -- any season, really -- who to that point had seen just four third- or fourth-and-short carries since the Week 11 bye and eight all season, according to Sharp Football Stats. He had five third- or fourth-and-short carries in all of 2017. He had none in 2016. ("Short" here is defined by two yards or fewer.)
On the next play against the Jets, after lining up in the shotgun with 11-personnel on fourth-and-1, White was summoned into the backfield and Brady went under center again. Once again, White got the carry. He was stuffed, giving the Jets the ball back with little time remaining at the end of the half.
Forget about the result for a second. Two short-yardage carries for a "sub" back, back to back, with Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead both healthy and available on the sideline.
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Why?
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The answer could be as easy as the Patriots had White on the field because the initial plan was to pass, but Brady then saw something from the Jets nickel defense that made the resulting run call a better option.
The more interesting (and equally speculative) answer: The Patriots were thinking ahead and had their own tendencies in mind.
With the playoffs looming, if Bill Belichick and his coaching staff could make their potential opponents a little more unsure, if the Patriots offense could become a little more balanced, a little more unpredictable based off of a couple of late-season snaps in a game that was shaping up to be a runaway...
Why not?
UNPREDICTABILITY IN THE WORKS
Belichick may not use the word "predictability" every week, but he hits on the idea of predictability in almost every question-and-answer session he holds with reporters.
When he talks about getting out to good starts and playing with the lead? That's all about predictability. If you have the lead, you can run or pass. You're harder to plan for and harder to stop. Defensively, you can pass-rush with abandon because the other guys (generally) have to throw to make up the deficit. They're more predictable.
When Belichick talks about self-scouting, part of that process is about identifying his team's tendencies, seeing where they've been predictable and finding ways to mix it up.
"I mean we look at that every week, so it’s an ongoing thing," Belichick said last month when asked about how his team had done in attacking its own tendencies over the course of the season. "What it was a few weeks ago and what it is now is not the same. So, we try to stay up on it every week. We obviously try to do the best we can every week."
In the Divisional Round, the Patriots will face one of three teams: the Texans, Chargers or Ravens. Two of those teams they have yet to face this year. The other (Houston) they saw back in Week 1. No matter which one punches its ticket to Foxboro, it'll be crunching numbers as quickly as possible -- if it isn't already -- to figure out what the Patriots like to do and when.
When are they under center? When are they in the shotgun? Which personnel groups mean the Patriots are about to run? Which are a dead giveaway they're about to pass? What do they do on third-and-short? Third-and-long? What's their go-to on the goal line?
The Patriots' pursuit of unpredictability seemingly began well before they handed to White in short-yardage situations in the final game of the season. It looks like it's been in the works for weeks.
For example, the Patriots used their 11-personnel grouping (one back, one tight end) 58 percent of the time before the bye. Not an overwhelming number, given that package is by far the league's most popular. But they dropped that rate even further in the last month of the season down to 50 percent, according to Sharp Football. Only the Saints, Eagles and Niners deployed "11" less frequently in December.
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The move away from those three-receiver sets has led to more 21-personnel groupings (two backs, one tight end) for the Patriots lately. They were a heavy two-back team before their bye -- 24 percent, second in the league -- but that number was bumped to 35 percent in the final month of the season. Only the Niners, with do-it-all fullback Kyle Juszczyk, used "21" more.
Now take a look at Patriots play-calls out of certain looks and how those have changed lately...
*Before the bye, the Patriots threw 70 percent of the time out of "11." In the last month of the season? That number dropped to 63 percent.
*Before the bye, the Patriots ran 58 percent of the time out of "21." In the last month of the season? The Patriots got closer to an even run-pass split out of that grouping (53-to-47).
*From Weeks 1-13, the Patriots ran 69 percent of the time when under center. In the final month of the season? They got much closer to an even run-pass split from under center (57-to-43).
Part of the reason for these shifts can be explained by Belichick's available personnel. Josh Gordon was removed from the equation the final two weeks of the season. Rex Burkhead returned from injured reserve and became a more consistent part of the offense in Week 13.
Still, in an age when coaching staffs across the league like to play the odds, the numbers available to defensive coordinators who could be coaching against the Patriots will show that Belichick's team crept more towards balance the postseason rolled around.
HOW WHITE FACTORS IN
It's been a different kind of year for White.
Consistently one of the most important pieces to the Patriots offense since his second season in 2015, White's role was what it was for three years. He was the sub back. More than 85 percent of his snaps came on pass plays from 2015-17, according to Pro Football Focus.
This year, his role has more or less been the same when the Patriots have had three healthy running backs, but largely because of injuries -- Michel has missed five games with injuries and Burkhead spent eight games on IR -- he's seen a wider swath of situations thrown his way.
White is still on the field primarily in passing situations, but the percentage of his overall snaps being taken up by pass plays has dropped to 78.8.
So sure, White is still a relatively predictable player when on the field. Especially when he's out there on third-and-long, opposing defenses don't exactly need to see him to be clued-in that Brady's about to throw. But some of White's numbers this year make it such that opposing defenses at least have to respect the threat of a run when he's in the huddle.
White has taken 94 hand-offs this season, easily besting his previous career-high of 43 in 2017. His yards per carry average finished at 4.5, another career-high, tied rookie first-round pick Michel.
White has also worked extensively with Brady under center this season. The Patriots are among the league's most likely teams to have their quarterback under center (third in the league at 54 percent, (as Matt Chatham of the Athletic astutely pointed out in this piece) and White has taken 60 of his hand-offs with Brady under center. Last year? That number was 27.
White's 10 third or fourth-and-short carries (five of which came in the last three weeks with all Patriots backs healthy) doubled his career-high. His average on third or fourth-and-short carries (5.0 yards) was the best of all Patriots running backs (Michel finished the season at 1.2), and in goal-to-go situations on third or fourth-and-short, White scored twice (same as Michel).
Clearly, White hasn't been back there just to mess with defensive coordinators' spreadsheets.
"James does great," center David Andrews said this week. "He’s got a pretty good knack for the goal line, it seems like, when we’re in the red zone. Sometimes he’s broken a couple of those 25, 30-yard runs to find the end zone. He’s a great runner. He’s just got great vision.
"You can see it in the pass game, too. It’s kind of the same thing once you get into the running game. He’s got great vision, he’s got great feet, great cuts. If we just give him just a little bit of room, he’s going to find it and make a play."
WHY IT MATTERS
Making opposing defenses a little more uncertain about what is going to happen from one snap to the next could make all the difference for the Patriots in the postseason.
If there are any hints of confusion stirring among defenses in crucial down-and-distance scenarios for the Patriots offense -- if the linebackers on the field are more likely to bite on play-action, or more hesitant to come downhill when Brady starts from under center -- that could open things up for an offense that has at times had trouble creating openings this year.
Brady had 'em.
The Patriots spread things out, with four players aligned wide and Brady in the shotgun with White to his right. Brady knew White would have a linebacker on him in one-on-one coverage and he knew that's where he'd be going.
Easy pickings.
If an element of unpredictability can open things for the Patriots with White on the field, as it did there, that's a dream come true for them. He's among their most dependable players and often finds himself on the field in a game's most critical situations.
"He does everything well," Belichick said this week. "I mean, he’s a great kid. He’s smart, he works hard, very tough, dependable, his ball security, his decision making, situational football -- I mean, he is one of those guys that almost always does the right thing.
"Sometimes things come up that aren’t exactly the way they were practiced or doesn’t exactly follow the rule that you’ve outlined, but he has to make a decision quickly, whatever the circumstances or situation is, and he almost always makes the right one. Some of that’s just instinctive and good judgment on his part that’s, I’d say, beyond coaching. Just he knows how to play football."
White not only knows how to play football. He's played more of it this year (career-high 601 regular-season snaps) and he's played more frequently in more variable situations than ever before -- run, pass, shotgun, under center, short-yardage, goal-line -- helping to alter tendencies he's established over the course of his career and tendencies the Patriots established through the early part of the season.
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