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September is just a few days away and Boston Bruins goaltender Jeremy Swayman is still a restricted free agent. Is it time to panic?
In short: no.
These negotiations don't always get done in a swift manner. Bruins president Cam Neely gave an update when asked about the Swayman contract talks last week.
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“Something will get done. There’s no question,” Neely said during an Aug. 22 radio appearance on WZLX's The Rich Shertenlieb Show. “Not every negotiation is as smooth as you’d like it. I know our fan base would certainly love to have something done by now. But I’m fully confident that both sides will come to an agreement before too long here.”
Swayman is a really good netminder. He played quite well during the 2023-24 regular season and then took his performance to an even higher level in the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs. He was the best goalie through the first two rounds and the clear MVP of Boston's first-round series triumph over the Toronto Maple Leafs.
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So, what's a fair deal for Swayman? Well, there are a couple factors to consider.
First of all, he's a top 10 goalie, and he deserves to be paid as such. In fact, NHL Network released their annual ranking of the top 10 goalies earlier this month and Swayman was No. 4. Even if you disagree with the No. 4 ranking, he's clearly still top 10.
Here's a look at where Swayman ranks in important goalie stats over the last three seasons. Keep in mind, with Swayman being just 25 years old, an argument could be made that his best years are yet to come.
Signing a contract that eats up unrestricted free agency years can get expensive. If Swayman signed an eight-year contract -- the max term allowed when a player re-signs with his own team -- that deal would take him through the 2031-32 season. He would be 33 years old when it expires. The salary cap is also expected to go up a decent amount in the coming years. The cap is $88 million for the coming season and should be $90-plus million in the near future.
The cap going up was actually brought up by Swayman when he was asked on a recent episode of the Shut Up Marc Podcast about his ongoing contract talks.
The Bruins have enjoyed a really strong last 17 years that includes 15 playoff runs, three trips to the Stanley Cup Final and the franchise's only championship (2011) since 1972. A huge factor in that success has been goaltending. The B's have had the luxury of playing a top 10 goalie for nearly all of that run, including players like Tim Thomas, Tuukka Rask, Linus Ullmark and now Swayman.
Paying a goalie a lot of money is not a huge roadblock to winning the Stanley Cup.
Sure, a couple recent Stanley Cup champs -- the Colorado Avalanche and Vegas Golden Knights, for example -- won without having an elite netminder. That said, the Tampa Bay Lightning have won a Stanley Cup and reached another Cup Final while paying Andrei Vasilevskiy $9.5 million per year. Sergei Bobrovsky is the second-highest paid goalie on a per year basis ($10 million) and has led the Florida Panthers to back-to-back Stanley Cup Final appearances, including a title last season.
So, what range would be fair for Swayman? Anything between $6.75 million and $8.5 million per season would be a good deal for both sides. A deal in that range would put him among the top 10 highest paid netminders. It's also important to remember the Bruins have about $8.64 million in cap space right now, per PuckPedia.
There are five goalies who will have a salary cap hit above $6.4 million next season, per PuckPedia. Swayman, based on his age, performance to this point, and the expectation of how well he'll play in the future, deserves to join this tier. But he would also be the least accomplished goalie in this group (with the potential exception of Ilya Sorokin).
All five goalies in this tier have won a Vezina except Sorokin, but the Islanders netminder finished second in 2023 and sixth in 2022. Bobrovsky and Vasilevskiy (two) have won the Stanley Cup. Price has led his team to a Cup Final and won Olympic gold with Canada in 2014.
Swayman simply doesn't have the resume of the five guys above (again, with the possible exception of Sorokin). It's not all his fault, of course. He has only been in the league since 2020-21 and until the 2024 playoffs he had never been the clear No. 1 goalie in Boston.
However you look at it, Swayman deserves a significant raise, and it would behoove the Bruins to get him signed to a seven- or eight-year contract. He's a tremendous player. He's embraced the city and fanbase. He has the right kind of temperament. He's exactly what you want in a starting goalie.
Swayman is talented enough to be a franchise cornerstone in Boston for a long time. But both sides need to find common ground on a contract for that to happen. Training camp is scheduled to begin Sept. 18.
